A second presidency promised turbulence and division, but few could have foreseen the sheer magnitude of disruption unleashed in just .
Trump has issued a torrent of to help implement his radical agenda, upending global trade, sparking mass deportations, and creating a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to slash federal spending and dismantle bureaucracy.
Trump’s rhetoric at odds with reality
Despite promising the American public a “golden age” of prosperity, Trump’s policies have quickly among US businesses and consumers, struggling to calculate the impact of on imported goods. The worst impacted are buyers of -made products, which now face a whopping 145% tariff.
Many had predicted that stock markets would reach new all-time highs under Trump 2.0 and that his backing for cryptocurrencies would spur a new wave of buying. But the erratic way his tariff policy unfolded caused investors to flee the usually safe haven US. Over the past month, financial markets have tumbled, the US dollar has weakened and decades of progress in global trade have been upended.
Rather than the “BONANZA FOR AMERICA” that Trump promised on social media, there are rising concerns about a potential recession gripping the US and global economies.
Around half of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) estimated a 25-49% likelihood of a US recession in 2025, while nearly two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters news agency warned of a “high” or “very high” probability of a global downturn.
Trump tests ‘strategic chaos’ to its limit
Trump’s use of what some analysts call “strategic chaos” has certainly kept investors, allies and adversaries on the back foot. Only China appears to be playing hardball with the US over tariffs, while the has offered zero-for-zero tariffs on industrial goods. The S&P 500, meanwhile, remains 10% off its all-time high in February.
Those rapid policy shifts, unorthodox appointments, and provocative rhetoric may appeal to Trump’s voter base, but most Americans are , giving him a 59% disapproval rating in a new poll from Pew Research.
While the president touts his economic policies as transformative for re-shoring manufacturing and job creation, many policymakers and experts think his unpredictable approach is inflicting significant economic, social and diplomatic damage.
“It’s been 100 days of destruction,” former Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz told a Harvard University event on Monday night. “You think we can survive 550 more? That’s the real challenge, that’s how long it is until the midterms.”
US reputation questioned by allies
Under Trump’s leadership, Washington’s reputation around the world has suffered significantly. His protectionist policies and strained ties with traditional allies have knocked confidence in the US as a stabilizing economic force. The Trump administration’s skepticism toward climate change and international institutions like the IMF and World Bank has worsened doubts about America’s commitment to global cooperation.
Swedish economist Lars Palsson Syll thinks the president’s often unpredictable leadership style has only contributed to the uncertainty.
“Trump has relentlessly imposed new tariffs, only to suspend them and, more than once, reinstate them again,” Palsson Syll, a professor in social studies and economic history at Malmo University College, told DW. “As we know from his first term, Trump’s decisions are very difficult to foresee, which in itself contributes to even greater turbulence.”
Unrestrained by the obstacles of his first term, Trump has also harnessed the control of the US Congress to strengthen his presidential authority in these initial three months. Nearly all of his cabinet nominees were quickly confirmed and both Houses approved the extension to the federal budget until September.
That, say some analysts, has limited significant opposition to Trump’s economic policies, particularly his tariffs, deregulation and efficiency drive.
“Despite in theory holding the purse strings and setting spending levels, Congress has provided almost no pushback against Trump’s attempts to radically reduce the size of the government,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at the London-based Capital Economics, wrote in a research note. “The have offered no resistance whatsoever.”
Ready for the next 100 days?
While Trump’s supporters have praised bold action on deep-rooted issues like illegal immigration and government waste, critics point to the many legal challenges to his executive orders as proof that the president is trying to undo democratic norms. Trump has issued more than 140 orders since January 20.
“During his presidential campaign, Trump openly said he would act like a dictator if he were reelected,” said Palsson Syll. “On this, it seems he has been true to his word.” The Swedish economist warned that if Trump continues down this path, “it will probably be the greatest threat to American democracy seen in the last century.”
Trump has yet to make good on a major campaign promise to implement “the largest tax cuts in history,” which the president said would spark an economic boom. There is growing speculation that these cuts will be announced in the next few weeks after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he wanted to pass the multi-trillion-dollar package by early July.
Capital Economics, meanwhile, projected that Trump’s second 100 days in office will be dominated by fiscal policy, rather than tariffs, as Congress grapples with urgent deadlines concerning the federal budget and the US debt ceiling. Failure to pass those could create more financial uncertainty, the analysts have warned.
“Now the real hard work begins … with the Republican leadership trying to find agreement with deficit hawks, who want deep cuts to mandatory spending, and moderates, who don’t,” noted Capital Economics’ Ashworth. “If the Republicans can’t reach an agreement … markets will become more nervous about the debt ceiling, which would reach a crisis point in August or September.”
Edited by: Uwe Hessler
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