Few regions on earth are as densely militarized and as persistently volatile as Kashmir. Cradled in the Himalayas and bordered by three nuclear powers in India, Pakistan and China, the contested territory .
That volatility resurfaced with deadly force this week.
On Tuesday, , killing at least 26 people and wounding dozens more in the worst assault on civilians in the territory in years. India has called the killings a terrorist attack.
Just days earlier, in a series of gun battles across the region — signs that tensions on the ground remain dangerously high.
Why Kashmir matters
Spanning roughly 85,000 square miles (220,148 square kilometers), Kashmir is divided among India, Pakistan, and China — but claimed in full by both and Pakistan. The region is home to over 12 million people and sits at a confluence of critical strategic, economic, and religious interests.
Kashmir’s history of conflict dates back to 1947, when into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, then ruled by a Hindu maharaja, initially declined to join either country. That changed after Pakistani guerilla fighters attempted to seize the region and topple him. The maharaja sought India’s help and acceded to New Delhi. The result was the first India-Pakistan war— and a de facto division of Kashmir that still holds.
India controls the most populous portion, which includes the Kashmir Valley, Jammu, and Ladakh. Pakistan holds parts of northern Kashmir, including Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan. China, meanwhile, administers the sparsely populated Aksai Chin region in the northeast, which India still claims.
Pakistan’s claim to Kashmir is rooted in the belief that the region, with its Muslim majority, should have become part of at the time of partition. India, in contrast, maintains that the 1947 Instrument of Accession makes its claim legitimate and final. The disagreement has fueled multiple wars, insurgencies, and decades of diplomatic hostility.
The third claimant: China
While India and Pakistan dominate the Kashmir narrative, also holds a strategic piece of the puzzle. The northeastern part of the region, known as Aksai Chin, is administered by China but claimed by India. The area is crucial for Beijing’s overland connectivity between Tibet and the western region of Xinjiang.
China established control over Aksai Chin in the 1950s by constructing a strategic highway linking Xinjiang and Tibet, a route that ran through territory claimed by India. India objected to the Chinese presence in the area, and tensions escalated into the brief but intense Sino-Indian War of 1962. After a brief conflict, China retained control of Aksai Chin and has administered it ever since. In recent years, Beijing has expanded its military presence along the disputed Line of Actual Control, leading to frequent standoffs with Indian forces.
The region’s importance for China is not just strategic, it is economic. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, runs through Pakistan-administered Gilgit-Baltistan. That makes the stability of Kashmir a matter of financial, not just geopolitical, concern for Beijing.
A heavily fortified landscape
India is believed to maintain more than 750,000 troops in Jammu and Kashmir, primarily concentrated in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley. Pakistan, for its part, stations over 150,000 troops in its administered regions, according to some reports, including specialized forces like the Mujahid Regiment.
Both sides accuse the other of exaggerating their respective deployments, and neither publishes precise figures. But analysts agree that the region’s military density, particularly relative to its civilian population, rivals or exceeds that of the Korean Peninsula.
Insurgent groups add another layer of complexity. Armed insurgency in Indian-administered Kashmir, which began in the late 1980s, has been sustained by a mix of local discontent and external support. India accuses Pakistan of backing militant groups, an allegation Islamabad denies.
Over the decades, groups like Hizbul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Lashkar-e-Taiba have carried out attacks in the region.
Could this spark another crisis?
In response to the attack, India has taken a series of diplomatic measures against Pakistan, including , and suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which governs the sharing of water from the Indus River system. Pakistan has condemned this move, warning that any interference with the treaty would be considered an act of war.
Speculation about potential military responses is growing, echoing the tensions of 2019, when a suicide bombing in Pulwama killed 40 Indian paramilitary troops. India retaliated with airstrikes on Pakistan, pushing the two nations to the brink of war.
That same year, , stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomy. The move, condemned by Pakistan, sparked unrest in the region. Since then, tensions have remained high, though global attention has faded.
In this volatile region, where all three powers are nuclear-armed, the risks of miscalculation are dangerously real.
Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu
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