President Donald Trump has sent markets reeling with his broadsides against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in recent days. Trump branded him a “loser” and has mused publicly about firing him — even though doing so is legally questionable at best.
Still, Trump’s advisers are studying the possibility of ousting the central bank chief, while others are warning Trump that doing so would cause far more market upheaval.
Who might take the helm at the world’s biggest bank? Names are already being bandied about by economists and, yes, oddsmakers. On the betting website Kalshi, traders are placing bets on who Trump will nominate next to lead the world’s most powerful central bank. The platform currently gives a one-in-four chance that Powell will leave the position before year’s end — despite the legal and institutional hurdles of a Trump firing.
Here are some of the nominees to replace Powell, whether it’s soon or when his term ends in 2026, at which point Trump can nominate a successor.
Kevin Warsh is a former Fed governor who served between 2006 and 2011, a fellow at the Hoover Institute — and the odds-on favorite among policymakers and oddsmakers to replace Powell.
“Before the global financial crisis,” Warsh said on a recent podcast, “the rest of the world, our allies and adversaries thought, ‘Well, those Americans, they certainly would know how to run an economy.’ And the global financial crisis suggested maybe we don’t.”
The Trump administration is already stocked with numerous Fox News (FOXA) personalities. Why not add another? The economist and commentator Larry Kudlow frequently skewers anyone he perceives as liberal.
On Fox, Kudlow recently spoke of the Fed’s announcement that it would continue reducing its holding of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds. “That’s a good thing, because it will keep the money supply in check, which means the inflation rate should remain in check,” he said. “All of that suggests that the Wall Street and liberal media’s hysteria over inflationary tariffs is a lot of hoo-ha.”
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is the second-favorite, according to oddsmakers.
“The president and his team will continue to study” if Powell can be fired, Hassett told reporters at the White House this week. And if Powell can be, Hassett may be the beneficiary.
Judy Shelton is a controversial economist with some political baggage. She could not win Senate approval for a spot on the Fed’s Board of Governors in 2020, and her views on the economy are out of the mainstream.
“You can have a healthy economy with some mild deflation, and I don’t think it affects people’s decisions,” Shelton said. “I think we need to trust supply and demand and let people respond to those price signals and not feel like we’re controlling their behavior.”
Oddsmakers give her low odds.
Arthur Laffer was an economic advisor in the Reagan administration and is considered the father of supply side economics, or the “trickle down theory.” Oddsmakers don’t give him very high odds — but the Trump administration has been anything but predictable.
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