Ever since the toppling of Bashar Assad in in December, Russia has been unsure whether its armed forces will be able to maintain their naval base at the Mediterranean port of Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase further north.
This uncertainty has prompted Russia to shift its focus to .
“In the immediate aftermath of the fall of the […] you had a lot of flights and cargo ships taking from bases in Syria toward Libya,” Tarek Megerisi, an analyst at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations and author of a recent study on Russia’s influence in Libya, told DW.
“So, it was clear at that point that in Moscow’s eyes, Libya is the safe space for it in the Mediterranean,” he added.
According to a report published in March by the New York-based think tank The Soufan Center, this is not the first time that Russian ships have called at the Tobruk naval base in eastern Libya.
The strategic port is under the control of Khalifa Haftar, the warlord and commander of the Libyan National Army militia who rules large parts of the east of the divided country.
“In June 2024, two Russian destroyers visited the Haftar-controlled Tobruk naval base. The warships’ visit was billed as a training mission but was likely a continuation of the delivery of artillery to the [Libyan National Army] for potential use against its or for export to anti-Western military forces in neighboring countries,” the study highlighted.
Moscow looks to Libya to bolster interests
Moscow’s interests in Libya are also represented by mercenary militias such as the , which now operates under the name “Africa Corps.”
According to Megerisi, Moscow is pursuing several interests in Libya, which has been of civil war.
In principle, Russia is striving to establish a military presence in the Mediterranean, the expert told DW. So far, this had mainly been concentrated in Syria. Megerisi also pointed out that Moscow was interested in commercializing local natural resources, especially .
Under pressure from Western sanctions, Russia is also trying to find consumers for its exports. As Megerisi noted, Libya is an important export buyer for Russian weapons.
Haftar’s son expands Libya’s role as ‘hot spot for smuggling’
In the Libyan conflict, Russia has been supporting the for years. “He remains Moscow’s most important partner,” Ulf Laessing, head of the German political foundation Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s Sahel regional program in Mali, told DW.
“The Russians also have diplomatic ties to the western part of the country and to its capital, Tripoli, but the focus is clearly on Haftar,” he added.
However, this has become increasingly risky, as Haftar is now 81 years old and his rule may well be fragile in the face of political pressure from the US. One of his sons, Saddam Haftar — against whom Spain issued an arrest warrant in 2024 on suspicion of arms smuggling — has established himself as Russia’s point of contact in Libya in recent years, as Megerisi pointed out in his study. He’s provided Russia with a network of Libyan military bases, the expert explained.
“Russia has used all this to help Haftar‘s putative heir, Saddam Haftar, expand Libya’s role as a hot spot for smuggling of weapons, drugs, fuel — and people,” Megerisi stated.
For years, flights from Syria to eastern Libya were operated mainly by a private Syrian airline, as Laessing noted. “They brought migrants from Asia, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, to eastern Libya. From there, they were transferred to ships that set off for Italy.”
Business based on suffering
According to Megerisi, human trafficking follows a .
“On arrival, migrants hand over their informal visas to [Haftar‘s forces], who detain [the people] until they receive payment by the network. They are then held for between several days to several weeks, typically in , before being taken to ‘launch points’ where they board boats towards Europe. At this point, Saddam [Hafter] is paid again for his coastguard units to allow boats through: $100 dollars per migrant for ‘smaller boats’ … or an $80,000 flat fee for larger boats,” he wrote in his study.
Others are taken to western Libya, Megerisi added: “This demonstrates how Libyan armed groups cross political divides in pursuit of profit.”
The routes migrants choose to reach Libya vary, depending on where they’ve come from. While Africans mostly arrive by land, people from Asia tend to come by plane. Afterwards, they usually pass through various points of contact until they reach eastern Libya, where they are handed over to Haftar‘s network.
‘Migration as a weapon’
This is where Moscow’s interests vis-a-vis Europe come into play. “The Kremlin has weaponized ,” Megerisi stated.
According to him, this was already the case during the war in Syria, when Russian planes brought migrants from to Minsk, who then traveled on toward Western Europe.
At the time, it increased pressure on the EU’s external borders, he said, adding that it is currently uncertain whether these flights are still taking place.
Since the fall of Assad, the focus of migration has been in the Sahel zone, said Megerisi. While Russian militias are helping to ensure that more people from that region find their way to Europe, they are also working with Saddam Haftar, he sai.
In his view, Europe can best counteract by offering migrants safe routes and checking them upon arrival. This would offer migrants safer routes of passage, and take the business out of the hands of smugglers, he noted.
This article was originally written in German.
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