It is safe to say that the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second presidency will be considered the most consequential of any in modern history. Since taking office, Mr. Trump has consolidated extraordinary power in the executive branch, dismantled large portions of the federal government, undone the military and economic alliances that were formed following World War II and torn up the policy consensus that has governed global trade for just as long.
But a consequential start does not in any way equate to long-term success. Mr. Trump’s approval ratings are already falling, and if past presidencies are any guide, the worst is yet to come. Now as in 2017, he is the only modern president to have a net negative approval rating at this point in his term. And as more and more Americans begin to feel the pain of his policies, we may well look back on his first 100 days as the prelude to a historically unpopular presidency.
Time has shown that the president typically enjoys a honeymoon period after the election, during which his approval rating is inflated. A more accurate picture of his popularity tends to emerge by early September of his first year, after the public has had time to absorb the impact of the new administration’s agenda. In every case since the 1990s, the job approval of a new president was measurably lower at that point than it was at the 100-day mark.
By the first September of their first terms, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had suffered an 11-point decline in their job approval. (Mr. Bush’s downward trajectory was disrupted by Sept. 11, 2001, which essentially made him a wartime president.) For Barack Obama, the drop was 15 points. For Mr. Trump, it was five points.
Joe Biden, the only one of these presidents not elected to a second term, had a 57 percent job approval rating as he approached his 100th day in office. By early September, however, it was down to 43 percent, in large part because of his premature claims of Covid’s defeat, the botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and a surge in inflation. Growing concerns about his fitness for office ensured his job approval never recovered, forcing him to withdraw from the general election 107 days before Election Day.
Mr. Trump will probably be subject to the same laws of political gravity, but he risks an even steeper fall in job approval by early September because of a combination of factors, some of which he shares with his predecessors and some of which are unique to his presidency.
Like his predecessors, Mr. Trump is overreading the mandate that voters gave him. While he was the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years, his vote share was under 50 percent, and his margin of victory was small by historical standards.
Mr. Trump’s victory was also driven more by opposition to the Biden-Harris administration than support for him. Despite having a net negative favorability rating similar to the one he held when he lost to Mr. Biden, he was able to eke out a narrow win over Kamala Harris in large part because she received six million fewer votes than Mr. Biden did four years earlier.
Mr. Trump, like all presidents going back to the early 1990s, took office in his first term with full control of Congress, which makes this overreading of his mandate even more dangerous. In all five cases, the president’s party lost at least one branch of Congress during his first two years in office.
What is different about Mr. Trump’s presidency this time around, and what makes him even more politically vulnerable, is that the current Republican-controlled Congress has subjugated its role as an independent branch of government to the executive, which has allowed him to pursue his most extreme appointments and policy positions.
What’s more, Mr. Trump has fallen into the trap — common for newly elected presidents — of not understanding the difference between the spectacle of campaigning and the work of successful governing. The failure to properly plan and execute policy has defined his second term, epitomized by the shambolic rollout of his immigration and tariff initiatives and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. The uncertainty created by Mr. Trump’s chaotic style of governing has also made it impossible for companies to make investment decisions.
These factors are likely to weigh heavily on Mr. Trump in the coming months, given his low ceiling of support, as well as the size and intensity of his opposition. In a March NBC News poll, 45 percent of respondents had a very negative opinion of the president, while only 36 percent of voters had a very positive one. It is the remaining 19 percent of voters with mixed views about Mr. Trump who will ultimately determine his popularity: More supportive of Mr. Trump’s policies than him personally, they will ultimately judge him on his performance in office, not on the issues that appeal to his base.
Recent polling has shown that Mr. Trump has already taken a hit with these voters, primarily because of his economic policies. In a CNBC survey released this month, 55 percent of respondents disapproved of his management of the economy — the lowest economic rating he has ever received and the first time it has been net negative in CNBC’s polling. Mr. Trump should be particularly concerned about his standing with independents, who gave him poor marks on his handling of the economy (–29 net approval) and even poorer marks on dealing with inflation (–51 net approval).
And this is before the country has felt the full impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which will surely increase the price of goods for all Americans — not to mention the long-term cost to their 401(k)s. In an early April CBS News poll, 64 percent of respondents said that they would be able to judge the effect of the administration’s tariff and trade policies on the U.S. economy within a few months, at most.
In addition to these concerns about the economy, Mr. Trump is vulnerable to the cuts that he and Musk are making in government services that more and more Americans depend on.
In 2000 there were only 317 counties in the country where 25 percent or more of the residents’ income came from government assistance — primarily in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security payments. By 2020, that number had ballooned to 1,986 counties. What is particularly dangerous for Mr. Trump is that almost 80 percent of these counties supported Republicans in previous elections.
Despite the fact that most people think there is waste in the government and that fat should be cut, they also believe that the government performs essential services. They will value these services even more when they no longer receive them. The public has not really felt the impact from the cuts, but they will by the fall.
Mr. Trump campaigned on bold promises to end inflation, to make America affordable again by bringing down the price of all goods and to usher in a “golden age of America” starting on Day 1. It will take about 230 days, not 100, to get a clear picture of whether the country believes he is delivering. While only a fool would make predictions in this volatile political environment, we can be certain that by the beginning of September, Mr. Trump will no longer be able to blame Mr. Biden for his troubles; he will own, for better or worse, the state of the country.
Doug Sosnik was a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000 and has advised more than 50 governors and U.S. senators.
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