The centuries-old tradition of wagering on who will be pope is back in swing.
Polymarket—the prediction market that famously projected a comfortable victory for President Donald Trump in 2024—already has a frontrunner to replace Pope Francis.
According to the betting platform, 70-year-old Italian Pietro Parolin, who has been the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013, has a 37 percent chance of being Francis’ successor. In his current role, he has been described as “deputy pope” and is considered a moderate choice.
Filipino Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, comes in at a close second with 32 percent. Called the “Asian Francis” because of his commitments to social justice, he would be the first pope from Asia.
Péter Erdő, a 72-year-old Hungarian, is in third place with 7 percent. Known as more conservative than Francis or the first two Polymarket contenders, he was in the running for pope during the last conclave in 2013 and has since built bridges with progressive Catholics, making him a potential “compromise candidate.”
Just behind Erdő on Monday morning was 76-year-old Peter Turkson, of Ghana, who came in at 6 percent. He would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.
A secret papal conclave will select the next pontiff. A date has not been set for the meeting, but the process typically begins 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death or retirement.
Pope wagers spiked on Polymarket on Monday morning after Francis died at 88. It has accepted $3 million in wagers in total, with money being put behind a pack of 13 possible pontiffs. The site is accepting wagers on other pope-related markets, like his race and when he will be chosen.
History suggests predicting the next pope is no easy feat, however. As the saying goes, “He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as a cardinal.”
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