China could stop US airpower from achieving air superiority in the first island chain, top commander says

China can prevent the US from achieving air superiority within the key first island chain, America’s top commander in the Indo-Pacific region said.

Last week, Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, gave China “high marks” in its ability to prevent the US from achieving air superiority in the first island chain, the strategic archipelagos in East Asia that includes Japan, Taiwan, and the northern Philippines, among other territories.

In a hearing with the US Senate Armed Services Committee, Paparo pointed to China’s air force. He said that China now has 2,100 fighters and 200 H-6 bombers and a production rate for fighters that’s currently 1.2 to 1 over the US.

China still operates a lot of older airframes, but the number of capable fourth-generation platforms is on the rise, as is its number of fifth-gen fighters. And the country continues to work on new aircraft designs.

“Furthermore,” Paparo explained during the hearing, “their advanced long-range air-to-air missiles also present a tremendous threat.” China has prioritized building up its missile stockpiles and capabilities in recent years, particularly ones capable of targeting US and allied forces and installations, including insufficiently defended airfields, in the region.

Air superiority, like the US military has enjoyed in conflicts in the Middle East in recent decades, requires securing a substantial degree of control over the skies with little interference from the enemy, meaning aircraft can operate with flexibility and provide support for other forces.

Ceding that air superiority, Paparo said, “is not an option if we intend to maintain capability against our adversaries and the ability to support our allies,” especially in the first island chain.

But both the US and Chinese air forces have been rethinking what air superiority would look like in a conflict and questioning whether that is even possible for more than brief windows of time.

With both sides employing advanced sensors and long-range weapons, including formidable air defenses, permanently controlling the skies seems increasingly unlikely.

That said, the admiral explained that he has “some game,” too. In a conflict, neither Beijing or Washington’s forces would likely achieve air supremacy, or complete control, Paparo said.

“It will be my job to contest air superiority, to protect those forces that are on the first island chain, such as 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force,” the commander explained to lawmakers, “and also to provide windows of air superiority in order to achieve our effects.”

Officials and experts have often discussed what the future US Air Force strategy against China should look like, the role of unmanned aerial systems in that, and how air power could determine the outcome of a war.

Also important is considering how China’s air defense systems would protect important targets, such as critical command and control centers, air bases, and radar sites.

Researchers have said that China could more easily devastate American airpower than the other way around.

Some have pointed to the importance of hardening US airbases and bolstering air defenses in the Indo-Pacific to improve the survivability of American aircraft should China launch a missile strike. Lawmakers in Washington have said the US isn’t doing enough in that regard.

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