BRUSSELS — Moscow is lobbying for the U.S. to open its skies to Russian airlines as part of a ceasefire deal with Ukraine.
But there’s a big problem with that scheme — the EU isn’t keen, and without Europe on board it won’t be easy for Russian carriers to fly to the United States.
“First, EU sanctions stand firm against Russia, which includes a ban on Russian airlines flying over EU airspace,” said a European Commission official speaking on condition of anonymity.
Beyond the political decisions on sanctions, the EU official also pointed to “major safety and security issues” related to the possible reopening of EU airspace to Russian jets, as “it is not known if Russian air operators and air traffic services have been properly maintained over the past three years, putting the airworthiness of the Russian fleet seriously in question.”
Since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian airlines have been banned from landing in and flying over the territory of the EU and the U.S., as well as from accessing spare parts for aircraft from Western manufacturers such as Boeing or Airbus. The Kremlin retaliated by blocking Western airlines from its airspace.
“As a result, there’s a high probability that bogus parts are being installed in aircraft operating within the Russian domestic market,” said Sander Starreveld, director of the SIG Aviation consultancy, warning of risks to aviation safety. “Allowing these aircraft to operate commercially in Europe is not only unsafe but also risks introducing counterfeit parts into the Union.”
Unsafe skies
In practical terms, reopening Europe’s skies to Russian airlines such as flag carrier Aeroflot would also place a massive burden on the EU Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).
The agency would be required to ensure that Russian airplanes have a level of safety that is equivalent with aircraft already operating in the EU, Starreveld said. “This process takes time, especially considering the workload involved.”
In addition to safety and certification issues, many Russian planes may never be able to land in Europe again because they are actually not Russian but were stolen from plane lessors after the invasion.
“Some aircraft could be seized immediately upon landing in Europe due to Russia’s unilateral decision to nationalize leased aircraft,” Starreveld said, noting that “there are massive debts owed to Western leasing companies, and I expect they’ll try to recover as many assets as possible.”
Pressure from Moscow
Despite such problems, Russia is demanding the resumption of direct flights to the U.S. as part of any agreement to stop fighting. Such a step “should be a consequence of the lifting of sanctions on Aeroflot,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on April 11.
“The Americans considered it, [but] so far we have not seen any reciprocal step,” the Russian minister said.
On Wednesday, Russia reportedly asked Washington to be allowed to buy planes built by U.S. manufacturer Boeing and to pay for them with Russian state assets that have been frozen since the start of the war, provided a ceasefire is reached.
So far the Trump administration has not lifted any sanctions on Russia, but some signals are giving the Kremlin hope.
In March, the head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, Robert Agee, publicly called for the lifting of sanctions in the aviation sector.
“Russia has a huge fleet of Western planes, mostly Boeing. We believe we should provide spare parts and technical support for them, so we will try to have these sanctions lifted,” Agee told the Russian business daily RBC, adding: “This is less a business wish and more of a humanitarian necessity, as ordinary citizens suffer primarily from this.”
Any effort to loosen restrictions on U.S. and Russian airlines would increase pressure for similar steps from European carriers. The latter have long complained about the extra cost of avoiding Russia’s vast airspace when flying to Asia, which has given an advantage to Chinese airlines.
Despite these competitive concerns, Brussels is wary of entering into negotiations with Moscow over access to its airspace, in part because of the unsafe nature of Russian skies.
The Commission official called the security of Russian airspace “problematic,” citing the Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight — allegedly after being struck by a Russian air defense missile — that prompted EASA to advise airlines to avoid all of western Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized for the crash but stopped short of saying Russia had been responsible.
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