The Social Security Trust Fund is in far worse shape than most Americans realize. Yet both political parties refuse to confront it. Why? Because addressing Social Security is considered “touching the third rail” — a phrase meant to invoke the political equivalent of electrocution.
Here’s where things stand. About 73 million Americans rely on Social Security for retirement, disability, or survivor benefits. But the program is bleeding money. It pays out roughly $60 billion more in benefits each year than it collects in payroll taxes.
We cannot keep printing and borrowing our way through this crisis. Kicking the can down the road will only trigger an inflationary disaster.
What about the trust fund? Isn’t there money saved for shortfalls?
Technically, yes. The trust fund holds $2.8 trillion in assets — but not in cash. That money was lent to the federal government over the years to finance its ballooning $36 trillion national debt. In exchange, the government issued the trust fund $2.8 trillion in Treasury bonds. In plain English: IOUs.
Each month, the trust fund redeems some of those IOUs to cover its shortfall. But there’s a catch. The federal government doesn’t have the cash either — it’s running a $2 trillion annual deficit. So when it pays the trust fund, it just borrows more. In effect, Washington is printing money to keep Social Security afloat.
Even if the trust fund had $2.8 trillion in real cash, it would still run dry by 2033. That’s because more people are retiring and drawing benefits than there are workers paying into the system. If Congress does nothing, benefits will be slashed by 23% in 2033. Why? Because by then, the fund will only collect about 77 cents in tax revenue for every dollar it pays out. Millions of Baby Boomers retiring each year will only accelerate this imbalance.
The longer Congress delays, the worse the fix will be. And the greater the risk that Washington — buried in debt — won’t be able to repay the trust fund at all. Soon, interest payments on the national debt will surpass the $1.6 trillion paid annually to Social Security’s 73 million beneficiaries.
It’s time to stop pretending this problem will fix itself. Yes, touching the “third rail” might carry political risk. But doing nothing guarantees economic and political disaster.
So what can we do?
First, remove the cap on Social Security payroll taxes. Right now, workers stop paying the 6.2% tax after earning $168,600 in a year. Lifting that cap would raise about $200 billion annually — enough to solve 70% of the long-term funding problem. Yes, high earners would be angry. But the move would also stabilize benefits for tens of millions of Americans.
Second, adjust the system’s parameters. We could raise the retirement age, though that punishes younger workers. We could raise the payroll tax rate, which hits all earners. We could reduce benefits for wealthy retirees. We could also turn loose the DOGE to combat waste and fraud, which drain billions from the system. A mix of these strategies could close the remaining 30% of the funding gap.
Third, we should expand the pool of contributors. America’s population growth has stalled. The best path forward is to increase legal immigration of able-bodied, working-age adults. At the same time, we should encourage more Americans who have left the workforce to return. The surest way to do that? Boost the economy and job creation.
What we cannot do is keep printing and borrowing our way through this crisis. Kicking the can down the road will only trigger an inflationary disaster.
The most painful option would be to cut benefits. But slashing retirement income for seniors who can’t easily return to work would be devastating — financially, morally, and politically.
No matter which fixes we pursue, we need to stop letting the federal government borrow from the trust fund. Lending money to a government drowning in historic debt makes no sense. The trust fund should be allowed to invest in safer, more productive assets that deliver reliable returns.
The time for delay is over. Politicians must grab the third rail — not because they want to but because the country needs them to. If they explain the stakes honestly and act decisively, voters might just reward courage over cowardice.
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