US President Donald Trump has imposed an additional 145% tariffs on all Chinese imports despite pausing his “reciprocal” levies on all other countries in a stunning reversal last week.
But China is not backing down, saying it will “fight to the end” if Trump continues to escalate what is already becoming a full-blown trade war. On Friday, China also significantly ramped up its own duties on US imports into the country.
To analyze which nation might blink first, CNN examined China’s largest imports from the United States — soybeans — to see if and how that demand could be met elsewhere, what US farmers stand to lose and more.
Both countries are deeply intertwined with each other on trade, though China sells about three times more to the US than it buys. The result is a significant trade deficit amounting to almost $300 billion in China’s favor, a gap that Trump wants to close with tariffs.
China buys mainly agricultural products from the US, including soybeans, oilseeds and grains. Soybean imports, mostly used for animal feed, already took a hit during Trump’s first term when the two countries sparred in an earlier trade war.
At the time, China sought to diversify the source of its imports and looked to other countries for agricultural products. It’s set to do that again after imposing 125% tariff on all US imports – a move analysts expect could send China’s imports of American agricultural commodities like soybeans close to zero.
US soybean exports to China are now subject to a total tariff of 135%, resulting from 10% tariff imposed on certain agricultural products in March plus the 125% levy announced on Friday.
During the first US-China trade war, Brazil — the world’s leading soybean exporter — emerged as a winner, with China’s imports of the legume surging over the years. Brazilian soybean exports to China have grown by more than 280% since 2010 while US exports have remained flat.
Last November, Xi went on a state visit to Brazil, which was meant to strengthen ties between the two countries. In 2024, China was the main destination for Brazilian soybeans, accounting for more than 73% of the country’s total soybean exports.
With production expected to rise — the Brazilian soybean crop is projected to reach record levels this year — China could increase its imports from Brazil and other South American countries like Argentina, which is currently the world’s third-largest soybean producer after Brazil and the US.
What this means for US farmers
The US agricultural sector lost around $27 billion during the 2018 trade war, with 71% of the losses being soybean-related, according to the American Soybean Association.
And farmers, many of whom live in states that went for Trump in the 2024 election, are still struggling with the fallout. Only Illinois, the top soybean producer, and Minnesota, the third-largest soybean producing state, went for former Vice President Kamala Harris last November.
China is looking for more allies beyond Brazil to counter US tariffs and expand trade cooperation. On Thursday, China announced that it was willing to work with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries to strengthen communication and coordination. Earlier this week China’s Commerce Minister discussed with EU officials restarting talks on trade relief and negotiations on electric vehicles.
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