BRUSSELS — Germany’s incoming government will throw its weight behind an ambitious EU climate target for 2040, but only if the European Commission allows countries to offset a portion of their planet-warming emissions instead of slashing them.
The stance was revealed Wednesday in a coalition agreement between the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), which won February’s snap election, and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The SPD’s 300,000-plus members must still approve the 144-page deal.
In the agreement, the two parties recommit to Germany’s 2045 climate neutrality target and give contingent backing to the EU executive’s recommended 90 percent emissions-cutting goal for 2040. Brussels has delayed legislation to enshrine the new target after struggling to find sufficient support from governments and lawmakers.
Yet Berlin’s support comes with the radical condition that EU countries must be allowed to incorporate international carbon credits in their climate efforts — meaning that instead of reducing pollution at home, they could pay for emissions cuts in non-EU countries and count those toward their own climate balance.
Despite some enhanced global governance rules, the reliability of such credits varies wildly. Critics warn that relying on offsets would discourage much-needed emissions cuts and shift rich countries’ responsibility to developing nations.
Last month, POLITICO reported that the European Commission has held talks with lawmakers and governments on including international credits in the EU-wide goal. The revelation caused significant disquiet among green-minded European Parliament members and environmental groups. The German government deal, if approved, will add the weight of Europe’s largest economy to the push for the credits to be included.
Speaking before the coalition deal was released, Tiemo Wölken, a German SPD MEP, said using such credits would “undermine the credibility of our climate policies and unduly shift responsibility onto other nations. This would open up tremendous loopholes instead of enabling emissions reductions at home.”
The coalition deal stipulates that any credits should be certified and of high quality, lead to permanent emissions reduction and be limited to “maximum 3 percentage points of the 2040 target.”
In addition, the coalition makes its 90 percent support contingent on being allowed to count permanent carbon removals toward the target. And the deal says Germany’s contribution to the EU-wide target must be limited to its existing domestic 2040 target — 88 percent.
Both carbon removals and international carbon credits should be integrated into the Emissions Trading System, the EU’s cap-and-trade carbon market, as well as the bloc’s overarching Climate Law, the parties say.
Peter Liese, a prominent CDU MEP, described the agreement’s language as a good compromise.
“If the largest [EU] member state finds a clear position, it will help us find compromise within the EU as well,” he said.
Beyond the climate targets, the coalition agreement backs the EU’s upcoming carbon price on fossil fuels used for heating and transport in 2027, with the parties vowing to redistribute the revenues to households and companies.
The agreement’s energy policy sections are largely unchanged from a March draft, with the new government planning 20 gigawatts of additional gas power plant capacity while pushing ahead with the expansion of renewable energy.
The parties also say they “want to make use of the potential of conventional gas production in Germany.”
Nuclear power is not mentioned at all in the document, despite the Christian Democrats’ repeated campaign promises to revive Germany’s atomic energy capacity.
The new clean heating law, which sparked a massive backlash, will be “abolished” and replaced with a revised version, according to the agreement. The law, introduced by the outgoing government, would ban the use of fossil fuels in heating from 2045 — a step the International Energy Agency recently lauded as a significant “achievement.”
The CDU has sought to scrap the law, while the SPD — which helped pass the legislation as part of the outgoing government — wanted only targeted revisions, according to March’s draft document.
CORRECTION: The article was updated to correct the coalition’s plans for the clean heating law. It will be abolished.
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