“I have great relations with a man named Erdogan,” United States President said last week. “I like him, and he likes me. We have never had a problem.”
But his statement about the wasn’t quite true. Relations between the two leaders have at times been fraught. In October 2019, Trump threatened to “totally destroy and obliterate the Turkish economy” if the country didn’t obey his wishes militarily. In a letter to Erdogan later that month, Trump called on him to make a “good deal” regarding military tensions in the region, warning the Turkish leader again that he would ruin the country’s economy if he saw fit.
In the last six years, has taken a financial beating, with the lira losing considerable value. In March 2007, one US dollar was worth around 1.30 Turkish lira, while in October 2019 it was worth 5.79, and today it is worth 38.06 lira.
Although Trump may have indeed damaged the Turkish economy with , the two leaders seem to get along better today than they have . This may be evidenced but the fact that Turkey was one of the countries least affected by , with a tariff of 10% now imposed on Turkish goods. Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs and the general reduction to 10% for all countries except China have now put other countries on the same level as Turkey for the time being.
A new opportunity?
While the has been negative, Turkish business representatives see them as an opportunity rather than a crisis. They seem convinced that with the right trade policy, Turkey can benefit from the new situation.
The tariffs could help Turkish exporters in particular to gain an advantage in the highly competitive US market, according to Bülent Aymen, deputy president of the Association of Mediterranean Furniture, Paper and Forest Products Exporters. “The US has been our hot market for three years. Our exports are increasing every month. The intensification of the tariff war enables Turkey to gain market share in US sectors such as chemicals, cars, furniture and electronics. We must make good use of this advantage,” Aymen said.
Trade between Turkey and the US amounts to over $30 billion (€26.4 billion). After Germany, the US is Turkey’s second most important trading partner. Turkish exports to the US have risen by an average of 16% over the past five years, while US exports to Turkey have increased by 9%. According to the Turkish Exporters Assembly, the country exported goods worth around $21.1 billion (€18.6 billion) to Germany in 2023, and earned around $14.8 billion from exports to the US. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, exports to the US rose to $16.3 billion at the end of 2024.
Turkey exports mainly chemical products, automotive parts, clothing, carpets and electronics to the US. It imports over half of its cotton from the US — for textiles that then end up exported back to the same country.
Trump’s high and the European Union could increase the visibility of Turkish products on the US market, said Seref Fayat, the textile commissioner at the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey. “We need to act quickly now. We can use the problems that China, Vietnam and Cambodia are likely to have to our advantage.”
Criticism of Turkey’s trade policy
Fayat is optimistic about the future of trade with Trump’s America. “I don’t expect Turkey to be negatively affected by the new situation,” he said, adding that he would suggest negotiating limited tariff-free trade with the US. “This is a very important opportunity. However, we must closely monitor how our most important trading partner, the EU, will be affected by the US tariff policy,” he warned.
But some in Turkey are still only cautiously optimistic. While the potential is there, many Turkish companies are not yet ready to take advantage of it, said Murat Akyüz, former president of the Istanbul Chemicals and Chemical Products Exporters Association. “I see the new US tariff policy as a great opportunity for Turkey. At the same time, I think exporters in Turkey are not sufficiently prepared.” In the past, many opportunities were not exploited because “no sustainable trade policy was pursued,” he added.
Fayat also sees potential issues, such as limited access to Turkish products in the US due to a lack of trade centers and warehouses. “Although Trump announced these tariffs a long time ago, we unfortunately did not make the necessary preparations,” he said.
A potential production hub
In addition to exports, Turkey could establish itself as a strategic player in another field: As a production location for Asian companies. Inviting companies from China to have their products manufactured in Turkey would help them avoid high customs duties, for example. The geopolitical situation as a bridge between East and West could favor such an arrangement.
“We need to explain to these countries, especially China, the advantages of relocating production to Turkey,” Akyüz said. “We should actively promote investment in this country. With its infrastructure and skilled labor potential, Turkey is well positioned for this. The Ministry of Trade in particular has a role to play here.”
This article was originally written in German.
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