Spring in Arizona has been fairly tame so far. Phoenix dipped in and out of the 90s throughout March, though we may see the first 100-degree day of the year far too soon.
The triple-digit temperatures will come soon enough, though. Summer weather was expected to remain on-trend with the recent years’ above-average temperatures.
On April 2, the Old Farmer’s Almanac released its long-range summer forecast for North America. It covered seasonal rainfall forecasts and predicted how hot it could be this summer, saying, “It’s going to be a scorcher”.
Arizona was one of the states labeled as “hot-dry” in the Old Farmer’s Almanac weather map. Here’s what the Almanac predicts summer will feel like in Arizona and the rest of the country.
When is the first day of summer 2025?
The first day of summer is June 20. The 2025 summer solstice goes through Sept. 22.
Our summers are deadly: Here’s why Arizona weather is deadlier than states with tornadoes
Will it be normal hot or extra hot this summer?
Last year marked the hottest year on record in Phoenix. Research conducted by the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s indicates Arizona won’t catch a break from the extreme temperatures in 2025.
The Almanac predicts a “gradual buildup” to record-breaking heat beginning in June — meaning the summer heat won’t surge too quickly. While the season could start off normally, July and August will likely bring above-normal temperatures across most regions in the United States.
Save for the Northwest and southern Florida, the Almanac said to expect hotter-than-normal temperatures. “The Deep South and Desert Southwest will experience significantly warmer conditions,” the forecast said.
Did the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict summer rain in Arizona?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac said rainfall will range from near to slightly below normal, particularly in the western half of the country. Interestingly, the Almanac suggests that Texas, Oklahoma and the Great Plains will experience the driest conditions in 2025.
Arizona was not one of the states the Almanac predicts will see above-normal rainfall this summer. Precipitation is expected to be higher than normal in Illinois, southern Alaska, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, parts of New England, Ohio, Hawaii and southern Florida.
How does the Old Farmer’s Almanac make predictions?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac bases its predictions on a comparison of solar activity and weather patterns, according to its website.
The Almanac explains that its forecasts draw on various academic fields, including solar science, climatology and meteorology.
It also notes that its current weather forecasting method is a modern adaptation of a formula developed by the almanac’s founder, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792.
How accurate are the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s predictions?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, distinct from the Farmers’ Almanac, claims an 80% accuracy rate for its weather predictions.
However, in a report evaluating the winter 2023-2024 forecasts, the almanac reported an overall accuracy rate of 64% for the season. The publication attributed the lower accuracy to “abnormal recent weather patterns.”
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona weather: Here’s what almanac predicts for monsoon season
The post Will Arizona have a rainy monsoon? Here’s what Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts for summer appeared first on The Arizona Republic.
