A huge storm system that has been causing widespread damage across the central United States for days, soaking communities from Texas to Ohio, is bringing more heavy rain and high winds on Sunday as it begins to move east.
So far, the heaviest rains of the weekend have fallen in Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky, where rising water and flooding have prompted water rescues, road closures and evacuation orders. At least 16 deaths, including those of a 5-year-old boy in Arkansas, a 9-year-old boy in Kentucky and a firefighter in Missouri, have been attributed to the storm system since it took hold on Wednesday.
The threat of more rain and stormy conditions is shifting eastward on Sunday but is expected to diminish, which will be a welcome reprieve for residents in the South and the Midwest. By Monday, the threat of heavy rain and flooding overall is expected to ease considerably.
Some rivers in areas like northern Arkansas and southern Missouri are expected to crest as soon as Sunday. Others may continue rising for two or even three more days, but there will be less chance of dangerous flooding than there was on Friday and Saturday, forecasters say.
Parts of the region are still expected to receive up to five more inches of rain before the long stretch of bad weather finally clears, according to the National Weather Service. “Moderate to major” flooding was forecast on many of the region’s rivers.
“Given the fact that everything is so saturated, everything is just running right off the ground and into area creeks and streams,” said Nate McGinnis, a meteorologist with the agency in Wilmington, Ohio.
Eastern Mississippi, nearly all of Alabama, northwestern Georgia and eastern Tennessee are facing the brunt of the storm on Sunday, according to the Weather Prediction Center.
Areas to the east, from southeastern Virginia to northern Florida, face the greatest risk of excessive rainfall from the storm on Monday. The Weather Prediction Center expects between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain there, with more possible in some sections, especially northern Florida and the eastern Carolinas.
A tornado spawned by the storm system touched down in near Barton, Ala., late Saturday, the National Weather Service said. There is a risk of more tornadoes over a wide area, from southeastern Louisiana to western Virginia.
As floodwaters have risen over the weekend, emergency workers in several states, including Arkansas, Missouri and Kentucky, have been working to rescue trapped residents. A firefighter in Missouri died while on a rescue call, and a 74-year-old man’s body was found in a submerged vehicle in Kentucky.
Several areas of Kentucky were under evacuation orders, including parts of Montgomery County, where the Kentucky River is forecast to crest at 47 feet — high enough to cause near-record flooding, according to officials in nearby Woodford County.
“That is a catastrophe — that is a disastrous event,” James Kay, the Woodford County judge executive, said in a video update posted online Saturday evening. He said some low-lying homes had already been inundated with six to eight feet of water.
Parts of Shelbyville, Ky., a city of more than 17,000 people, were under mandatory evacuation orders because of flooding in the Big Blue and Little Blue Rivers, local officials said. And on the Licking River, the whole town of Falmouth, Ky., home to 2,500 people on the Licking River, was under a mandatory evacuation order.
Debbie Dennie, a former editor of the Falmouth Outlook newspaper, said that the rain and flooding forecast for the weekend “would be devastating” for the city. After a 1997 flood in Falmouth that killed five people, she said, river gauges were installed to keep better track of rising water levels, and residents have been heeding warnings to evacuate.
By Sunday, the worst of the storm had largely passed communities along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, but many areas were still reeling from the damage. A pizzeria in Cape Girardeau, Mo., along the Mississippi River, was closed indefinitely after its roof collapsed, and an antique shop’s windows were blown out.
Kyleigh Baliva, who works at another antique store owned by her family, recalled when her shop flooded recently. “The water came up because of the rain,” she said. “It had nowhere to go. We’ve seen it happen before, but it hasn’t happened in at least 10 years like this.”
Still, her antique shop, which has a pump in the basement, was largely spared from severe damage, she said.
In Tyrone, Ky., Jessica Stratton, who grew up there, said on Saturday that she knew her camper was already a total loss and expected it to wash away. She took all the groceries she had left in her camper to the Tyrone Baptist Church to organize and serve meals for people who had been displaced.
“People are prepared, and getting their stuff out,” Ms. Stratton said. “We watch and wait and make sure everyone is OK and has something to eat. I’m not leaving my people behind. Everybody’s worth saving.”
As the storm system continues to move east, parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states may experience gusty winds, thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes, particularly in southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. The Storm Prediction Center said there was a chance of severe weather, albeit a slight one — level two on a one-to-five scale — in the region through Tuesday.
The amount of moisture in the air, the key ingredient for heavy rain, is expected to decrease gradually through Monday as the storm system moves toward the coast. The moist air should clear out of the Carolinas by Monday evening and away from Central Florida by early Tuesday.
The rainwater the storm left behind will take longer to drain away. The Weather Prediction Center said a threat of significant to “potentially catastrophic” river flooding in the areas already hit hard by the storm would persist through the week.
Carly Gist, Mitch Smith, Amy Graff, Yan Zhuang, Ginny Whitehouse and Nazaneen Ghaffar contributed reporting.
Simon J. Levien is a Times political reporter covering the 2024 elections and a member of the 2024-25 Times Fellowship class, a program for journalists early in their careers. More about Simon J. Levien
Isabelle Taft is a reporter covering national news and a member of the 2024-25 Times Fellowship class, a program for journalists early in their career. More about Isabelle Taft
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