WASHINGTON – Deep cuts at the nation’s weather agency could put Arizonans at risk by hampering forecasts for haboobs, monsoons, flash flooding and wildfires.
One in 10 employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have been fired or taken buyouts since President Donald Trump took office. His administration has proposed eliminating another 10% of the workforce, though so far that plan has been stymied in court.
NOAA, which includes the National Weather Service, provides forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring.
Among other changes, the reductions have forced the agency to scale back its use of weather balloons needed for accurate readings and forecasts.
Weather balloon launches have reportedly been scaled back or stopped at 11 of 92 stations in North America and the Pacific Islands. Two stations in Arizona use weather balloons; no reductions in launches have been reported so far at those.
“It’s possible that removing five or six stations in particular locations won’t degrade the forecast at all. That’s possible. But it’s unlikely,” said Matei Georgescu, a professor at Arizona State University’s School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning. “We’re conducting a real-time meteorological experiment now. … This is certainly disheartening.”
Models that predict extreme and sudden events such as snowstorms, tornados, monsoons, dust storms and wildfires require real-time data on temperature, wind and other measures, Georgescu said.
“They need a starting point,” Georgescu said. “If you have a starting point that’s wrong, then your forecast will suffer. … We can’t expect the model to come up with magic.”
As summer approaches, concerns will grow in Arizona about haboobs – massive walls of dust and sand that sweep across the landscape.
Residents of the Southwest and other dry regions around the world can attest to their blinding ferocity.
Dust storms can reduce visibility for drivers, increasing the risk of crashes. According to a 2023 study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, there were 232 deaths from windblown dust events from 2007 to 2017 in the U.S., mostly in the Southwest.
A stretch of Interstate 10 near Picacho Peak between Phoenix and Tucson is a hotspot for such crashes and fatalities.
The Arizona Department of Transportation tells drivers to “Pull Aside, Stay Alive” during dust storms.
A 2023 study in the Western Journal of Emergency Medicine that looked at vehicle crashes in Phoenix over a decade found that these warnings saved lives – warnings that rely on data from NOAA.
Agency officials declined to discuss concerns that cuts will hinder forecasting.
“NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience,” the agency said in a statement. “We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”
Cuts at NOAA are part of an effort to drastically and quickly shrink the federal workforce led by billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk. Critics say NOAA’s $6.6 billion annual budget is far too modest to yield much savings, and say the downsides far outweigh the benefits.
About 800 employees were fired in late February and 500 others took buyouts. Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” has targeted another 1,029 employees but those firing are on hold under a court order. The workforce before Trump took office was 12,909, according to the Office of Personnel Management.
Arizona’s weather extremes make the state especially vulnerable, meteorologists say.
The spring forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, issued March 20, shows drought conditions will persist in the state and across the Southwest.
Less timely and accurate forecasts would hit certain groups especially hard. Harsh winds or heavy rain can harm the structural integrity of fresh concrete, for instance.
“If there is an increased chance of rain or strong winds, we have to cancel or postpone concrete pours,” said BC Smith, spokesperson for the Operative Plasterers and Cement Masons Arizona Local 394 union.
“Not having up-to-date accurate weather forecasts is definitely a liability to our trade and industry partners,” he said.
Michael Vazquez, executive director of the Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council, said construction workers are at risk, too.
Unreliable forecasts “can jeopardize the safety of construction workers,” he said, warning of the potential for more accidents during commutes and at construction sites.
For his industry, he added, “the government weather service is a valuable resource.”
Dust storms contain fine particles of sand and dust. That puts people at risk for asthma and other lung conditions. It’s especially dangerous for people who already have such ailments, according to the American Lung Association.
A 2017 study at Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center documented what’s been called Haboob Lung Syndrome, in which the lungs are “overwhelmed with intense dust exposure.”
Delays in haboob warnings put homeless people at higher risk of dust exposure. And without time to find shelter from a monsoon, flooding can sweep away their belongings.
Many homeless people have phones and get alerts, advocates say, though they don’t always have a place to go on short notice.
“People who live outside are among the first communities to be hurt by climate change” and weather events, said Jesse Rabinowitz, spokesperson for National Homelessness Law Center.
“Like many of Trump’s cuts, it’s not going to help anybody. It’s just going to make people who are already vulnerable even more at risk,” he said.
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