Who Will Die on The White Lotus—and Who’s the Shooter? 9 Theories

Poor Chelsea. According to Vanity Fair’s staff, Aimee Lou Wood’s sunny kept woman should watch her back when The White Lotus’s season three finale airs on Sunday—because it looks an awful lot like she’s going to get struck by one of the bullets we heard ring out during the violent flash-forward that kicked off episode one. Of course, that bullet could just as well strike Jason Isaacs’s Timothy, or Carrie Coon’s Laurie, or, hell, one of those chattering monkeys that kept interrupting Zion (Nicholas Duvernay) as he attempted to meditate—to say nothing of who might be on the other end of the gun. Is the shooter Patrick Schwarzenegger’s Saxon, totally broken after remembering the act of incest he committed with his very own brother? Sam Nivola’s Lochlan, ibid? A monkey, somehow?? In Mike White’s world, just about anything seems possible. (Short of Jennifer Coolidge reappearing to reveal that Tanya is actually alive and well—but a girl can dream, right?)

Below, nine VF staffers try to guess what will happen as The White Lotus winds to a close. Potential spoilers may follow—assuming we did our jobs right.

Not gonna lie: Episode seven was a bit of a disappointment. This season has been heavy on plot and light on resolution. I tend to agree with the portion of the internet that thinks the monkeys have something to do with the gunshots—either they are shooting the gun, or the security guards are shooting at them for some reason. As for the body, I’m going with Sam Rockwell’s Frank, somehow. Rick (Walton Goggins) seems to be edging death, but I don’t think he (or Chelsea) will die, because that would be somewhat off-brand for Lotus. And I will wager some other NOT-dead guesses, which is an easier challenge: the three blondes; the Ratliffs; and the hotel employees, including Gaitok (Tayme Thapthimthong), whom I have changed my mind about after pegging him as a goner as recently as last week. —Claire Howorth

In an attempt to free herself from Greg (otherwise known as Gary and played by Jon Gries) and ultimately prevent harm from befalling her son, Zion, Belinda (Natasha Rothwell) fires the gun into the resort’s restaurant during its bustling breakfast service. She thinks Greg flashed a firearm, but it is actually just his watch glinting in the sun. In his final act of service, a newly enlightened Rick leaps across the table and takes a bullet for Chelsea, saving her life. As he dies, smiling, in Chelsea’s arms, he realizes he has fulfilled his purpose and performed the ultimate sacrifice for the woman he loves. —Alyssa Karas

After all of Mook’s (Lalisa Manobal) talk about fighting, I’m pegging her as the shooter and the mastermind behind the robbery. With that kind of star power, Mike White must have bigger plans for Lisa! And I have no doubt that Rick is going to die in some tragic, romantic attempt to save Chelsea, who is due for her third near-death experience. As she explained to Saxon, she and Rick are in a battle between hope and pain, yin and yang. Rick has just emerged into the light—he wore all white in the last episode—and put his pain behind him, just in time for he and Chelsea to swap roles. —Jaime Archer

While the likeliest theory is that the gunfire is from some sort of Russian gangster–vs.–Thai security guard shootout, my wild guess is that Victoria (Parker Posey) finds out that Timothy has ruined them, somehow gets her hands on a firearm, and starts blasting away at her husband, chasing him around the resort. Poor Gaitok catches a stray bullet, because the help never fares terribly well on this show, and Victoria is arrested for murder—she’s ultimately the one who destroys her family, not Timothy. Meanwhile, frenemies Laurie, Kate (Leslie Bibb), and Jaclyn (Michelle Monaghan) reconnect over their trauma; Lochlan joins the monastery; Piper (Sarah Catherine Hook) freaks out about the fact that her family will be broke and realizes that money is actually important to her; Saxon tackles his mother and saves the day, thus finding a new sense of self; and Rick returns to Chelsea and vows to be a better partner. Belinda, meanwhile, finds her son and the two race off to safety together, Belinda vowing to never set foot on a White Lotus property ever again. —Richard Lawson

I believe there are multiple shooters, and will list my theories from most outlandish to most plausible. First: Now that we know the burglars are friends of Valentin’s (Arnas Fedaravicius), let’s assume they will be back to wreak havoc on the White Lotus in this season’s finale. What if, as they return, Quentin (Tom Hollander’s character from season two) comes to visit Greg so that they can figure out what to do about the Belinda situation together? Remember: Last season it was implied that they might have been lovers when they were younger. In this scenario, chaos ensues, guns go off, Quentin is struck by a bullet, and Greg’s only true love dies at the White Lotus. Or maybe Victoria Ratliff gets wind of what is going on back at home in North Carolina and shoots her husband, Timothy, in the midst of the other gunfire, seeking retribution for upending her comfortable existence. —John Ross

I think Saxon is the shooter. As he told his father in the penultimate episode, he has nothing—nothing!—outside of work and his identity as Timothy Ratliff’s son. He’s not in a fluid state of personal growth or open-mindedness that might allow for some flexibility of perception. His sense of self is brittle, ergo fragile, and already fractured by a night of drunken incest that he can’t sublimate. So when he learns that his father is under investigation and their lives are about to be upended—which I think he will—Saxon is going to lose any shred of control and go berserk. To be honest, I don’t know if I actually believe this specific theory or if I think more broadly that Saxon will suffer some harm in the finale, whether he is a perpetrator or a victim…but it was interesting to follow my muddled sense of Saxon disaster to a conclusion! I hope I’m wrong. But on the other hand, I don’t know what I want to be right. —Radhika Jones

This is admittedly a long shot, but I am going to take a big swing and say that sweet Piper Ratliff is the one who snaps and goes on a murderous rampage against her own family. Sure, she has been the picture of nonviolence—she wants to study Buddhism at a monastery!—so statistically, she’s probably the least likely member of her family to resort to gun violence. However: Have you seen the Ratliff family lately? Everyone has their breaking point. Plus, Piper is already growing disillusioned with her spiritual goals thanks to her copycat little brother, and she doesn’t seem to like her family very much to begin with. Also, if Piper were to snap, we’d potentially get to see Parker Posey scream “Piper, noooo!” again, which would make this whole season worth it. —Chris Murphy

I’d like nothing more than for Rick and Chelsea to live in offbeat, yin-yang harmony for many vacations to come. But I get the sinking suspicion that Chelsea will be one of multiple casualties in the season finale. According to her, bad things come in threes: After her experiences witnessing a robbery and getting bit by a snake, the third thing lies in wait. Plus, Chelsea is this season’s ray of light, which would make her death all the more shocking. I don’t have a firm theory on who does the killing, but it likely involves Rick. He tends to hang around shady characters (hey there, Sam Rockwell) and has just pissed off the high-powered owner of the White Lotus Thailand, and Chelsea’s words to him from the first episode linger: “I’m gonna help you get your joy back, even if it kills me.” —Savannah Walsh

I predict that Jim Hollinger (Scott Glenn), the guy Rick took pity on and merely tipped over in his chair, rediscovers his inner assassin and comes to the White Lotus to hunt him down—only to end up putting a bullet in Chelsea instead. This will ensure that the rest of Rick’s life will have been ruined by the same man who ruined the first half. (Okay, two thirds.) Elsewhere in the episode, I see the napping dad joining the monastery to escape his financial troubles and find nirvana; the hapless security guard doing nothing to hold the Russian robbery gang to account, thereby blowing his shot with Lisa from Blackpink; and Belinda negotiating her payoff from Greg up to [extreme Dr. Evil voice] one milllllion dollars, then sailing off into the sunset with her son. —Mike Hogan