PARIS ― Right. Well, we know Marine Le Pen lost.
But who in French politics actually stands to gain from the far-right leader’s ban from running in the next presidential election?Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction, after she was looking good to replace Emmanuel Macron as French leader, hands a few people fresh opportunities. And maybe makes things more difficult for a few others.
The vote is still two years out, but the candidates who were already jockeying for pole position must adjust their plans now that the likely victor is out of the picture.
… Or so we thought. But even with the lifeline she was subsequently thrown by an appeals court, Le Pen is surely still the biggest loser from Monday’s bombshell verdict.
Here’s how things are shaking down.
Winners
Jordan Bardella (maybe)
For Le Pen’s protégé and heir-apparent, the verdict could be an uncanny stroke of good luck that propels the National Rally’s rising star to new heights. As party leader and its pick for prime minister, the 29-year-old Bardella is the party’s natural substitute for Le Pen in the presidential election.
Bardella has already been blessed with lucky breaks during his short political career, becoming the party’s lead candidate for the 2019 European election at barely 23 years of age. But he’ll have to play his cards right not to scupper his shot at the highest prize in the land.
According to Jean-Yves Camus, a specialist in the far right at the Jean Jaurès Foundation, Bardella will have to tread carefully if he doesn’t want to look like a backstabber.
“It would be a major blunder if Bardella, who was not on trial nor bothered by proceedings, should try to walk away from it all,” said Camus.
“It’s the whole party that was on trial.”
Bruno Retailleau
France’s popular Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau is best placed to reap dividends from Monday’s colossal blow to the National Rally.
Retailleau, a tough-talking 64-year-old heavyweight from the center-right Les Républicians, has seen his public profile and popularity skyrocket since former Prime Minister Michel Barnier gave him the job.
Retailleau is already contesting the leadership of his party next month. If he wins he could prove an attractive option to voters looking for someone who doesn’t hew too far from the National Rally’s positions on immigration and culture-war issues ― and who doesn’t carry the far-right party’s baggage.
Le Pen’s sentence will “make it easier for a competitive conservative contender to emerge, who will be able to catch voters from the far right,” said OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart. “National Rally voters might decide they prefer Retailleau than vote for Bardella and lose.”
Losers
Marine Le Pen
It’s all about her, so Le Pen obviously comes out as the biggest loser ― even after Tuesday evening’s announcement of an appeal decision by summer 2026.
As the leader of the French far right and a member of its first family, Le Pen has proven herself a survivor. She lived through a bomb attack as a child, a very public falling-out with her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, and a public humiliation during her 2017 presidential debate against a young Emmanuel Macron.
But this could be the knockout blow that terminates her political career.
Even if it doesn’t, Le Pen’s momentum has been broken. Before this week she was riding high, with polls predicting she would win the first round of the 2027 election and be competitive in the second. With an army of lawmakers devoted to her in the National Assembly and her ideas becoming more mainstream in France, Le Pen seemed at last to be on the cusp of breaking the firewall that has kept her out of power.
François Bayrou
French Prime Minister François Bayrou may be the first to pay for Le Pen’s downfall. The centrist Macron ally has been trying to woo both National Rally and moderate left lawmakers to keep his minority government afloat.
Since Bayrou came to power in December, after the far right ousted his predecessor, the National Rally has held back from toppling the government. Ahead of the Le Pen verdict the far right was already raising the stakes.
“It’s a rodeo and the prime minister is trying to stay on as long as possible, but there’s no leadership,” said a National Rally heavyweight, who was granted anonymity to discuss party strategy. The person said National Rally lawmakers were not looking for “excuses” to topple the government but would do so if there were “elements” that were “serious enough.”
Bayrou is also treading carefully because he too has faced a trial on accusations he and his party embezzled European Parliament funds for party activities, though on a much smaller scale. He was acquitted last year, but his party and several of its members were found guilty. The prosecution, however, has appealed and a new trial is expected.
Jury’s still out
Edouard Philippe
The former prime minister has been patiently waiting on the sidelines as he choreographs his presidential bid. But Le Pen’s ouster from the race could change those plans, and not necessarily for the better.
If Le Pen’s legal troubles benefit conservatives like Retailleau, Philippe will have to contend with a new set of competitors as he vies to inherit the centrist crown from Macron.
But Le Pen’s misfortune may also help Philippe, as long as he makes it to the second round runoff in the presidential election and faces Bardella. Before the verdict polls predicted Philippe and Le Pen would be neck-and-neck if they both got through to the second round.
“For Philippe, it’s easier to beat Bardella in a runoff scenario,” said Jeanbart. “He’s less experienced [and] will be less comfortable in a debate, whereas Marine Le Pen has already had two debates against Macron.”
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