At face value, an election on Tuesday will decide whether conservatives or liberals control the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a result that could shape the fate of essential policies in the state from abortion to congressional district maps.
But as a torrent of money from outside Wisconsin has made the contest the most expensive judicial race in American history, voters across the state said they had come to see this election to fill a single State Supreme Court seat more as a referendum on the early months of President Trump’s second term.
Fueling that perception is roughly $20 million that Elon Musk and groups allied with him have spent to boost the conservative candidate, Brad Schimel, a judge who also got President Trump’s endorsement not long ago. The liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, another judge, has decried Mr. Musk’s spending as an attempt to place a lackey on the state’s top court.
Whichever candidate wins will tip the seven-member high court’s political balance, which liberals currently control with a 4-to-3 majority.
But the outcome will also show how voters in one of the most evenly divided battleground states in the nation are feeling about Mr. Trump’s sharp cuts to the federal work force, his crackdown on illegal immigration and the administration’s crusade against diversity initiatives in government programs and higher education. Mr. Trump won Wisconsin by less than a percentage point last November and narrowly lost it in the 2020 election.
“The pendulum swings back and forth in U.S. elections, and I think this election will be a good indicator of whether the pendulum is going to swing back the other way based on Trump’s actions in office,” said Michael Orwig, 40, a federal worker and Schimel supporter who lives in a suburb south of Milwaukee. “This is going to be the first litmus test.”
Mr. Musk’s backing of Judge Schimel, a former Wisconsin attorney general, has been among the most dominant and divisive issues in the race. A super PAC funded by Mr. Musk has spent millions to boost conservative turnout and has offered $100 payments to voters who sign a petition “in opposition to activist judges” — a tactic, which some critics say is legally questionable, that he employed in last year’s presidential election to help Mr. Trump.
At a town hall in Green Bay on Sunday, Mr. Musk also gave $1 million checks each to two people who had already voted in the election; the Democratic state attorney general had sued to block those payments, but the State Supreme Court declined to hear the case.
His involvement has energized some conservatives but outraged liberals, in part because Mr. Musk’s electric vehicle company, Tesla, is suing Wisconsin, challenging a law that bars manufacturers from selling cars directly to consumers.
“I’m disgusted by the idea that Elon Musk is trying to do something to our state, trying to buy us,” said Anwen Mullen, 47, who lives in River Falls in western Wisconsin. Ms. Mullen, who backs Judge Crawford, said she feared that a victory by Judge Schimel could lead Wisconsin to ban abortion and limit rights for transgender people.
Tatiana Bobrowicz, a student at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire who heads the local College Republicans chapter, said she was untroubled by Mr. Musk’s role in the race and noted that Wisconsin elections have often drawn involvement from out-of-state donors on both sides. Ms. Bobrowicz, who is studying biomedical engineering, said she hoped that elevating Judge Schimel to the State Supreme Court would lead to an abortion ban in Wisconsin and create a more permissive environment for Mr. Trump’s agenda.
“We have momentum right now with all these things happening within the national executive branch,” said Ms. Bobrowicz, 21. “So I think this is a great time for our state to become aligned with them.”
Supporters of Judge Crawford said they hoped the election results would do the opposite.
Linda Vognar, 74, a veterinary acupuncturist who lives in the Chippewa Valley region in western Wisconsin, said she had been aghast by the blitz of executive orders and policies the Trump administration has rolled out in recent weeks. Electing Judge Crawford, she said, would serve as a bulwark against what she sees as an erosion of democratic norms, including the integrity of future elections.
Emily Rose, 19, an environmental engineering student at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls, said she intended to vote for Judge Crawford to counteract what she sees as the Trump administration’s reckless embrace of the fossil fuel industry.
Tom Wilson, 79, a retired housing energy consultant in Eau Claire, said a Crawford victory would buck up those, like him, who worry that the Trump administration is undermining “the whole constitutional structure of our government.”
Several supporters of Judge Schimel said a major issue shaping their choice was the future of legislative districts, where boundaries have been shifted over the years in ways that have given one party or the other a clear political advantage. The fairness of congressional maps has been a flashpoint for the Wisconsin Supreme Court for years, and the issue became contentious once more after a hard-fought election in 2023 put liberals in a 4-3 majority.
In late 2023, the court ordered the state to draw up new legislative districts, ruling that some established while Republicans ran the state were unconstitutional because they were not contiguous. Those districts, Democrats have long asserted, gave Republicans, who control both chambers in the Capitol, an unfair advantage in a relatively divided state.
That, said Mr. Orwig, the federal employee, was the main reason he intended to vote for Judge Schimel despite concerns he said he has about Mr. Trump’s approach to downsizing the federal work force and what Mr. Orwig views as waning U.S. support for Ukraine.
“There are a lot of hard workers in government,” said Mr. Orwig, an Army veteran who voted for President Trump the past three presidential election cycles. “Everyone at my work feels like they’re walking on glass right now.”
Thomas Mihajlov, 78, a retired banking executive and business professor in Eau Claire who supports Judge Schimel, said he believed that liberals could not be trusted to draw fair legislative maps. But his most pressing concern, he said, was that liberal judges too often “legislate from the bench” to enact policies that lack legislative support.
During the final weeks leading up to the election on Tuesday, many voters said they had grown overwhelmed by a barrage of mailers, campaign canvassers and television and social media ads. Spending on the race — and not just by Mr. Musk — has seemed mind-boggling, some residents said.
Among donors that have assisted Judge Crawford’s effort, George Soros donated $1 million to the Wisconsin Democratic Party, while Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois provided $500,000; the party transferred those funds to the Crawford campaign. Altogether, the campaigns and outside entities have spent more than $81 million on the race, according to a tally by the Brennan Center for Justice.
As of March 26, the Crawford campaign had spent more than $22 million, far outspending the $10.3 million reported by Judge Schimel. Factoring in money spent by outside groups, though, Judge Schimel’s campaign heldan advantage of more than $10 million.
Denise Wendell, 59, who owns a gift shop in Lake Geneva, said she had grown accustomed to a deluge of out-of-state money aimed at swaying Wisconsin voters in elections.
“I don’t like that it’s outside money on both sides, but it is what it is,” said Ms. Wendell, who said she would vote for Judge Schimel because of Mr. Trump’s endorsement. “Everyone wants their agenda pushed.”
Tammy Lamberg, 58, a retired firefighter from Milwaukee, who cast an early ballot on Friday for Judge Crawford, called the tens of millions raised in the race staggering if not entirely surprising.
“I don’t typically like outside money swaying an election, but I completely understand the importance of this race, especially because Wisconsin is a swing state,” said Ms. Lamberg, who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris last year.
As she cast her ballot, the vote last November was top of mind.
“If you’re unhappy with the presidential election, it’s a way to send a message,” she said.
Robert Chiarito contributed reporting.
Ernesto Londoño is a Times reporter based in Minnesota, covering news in the Midwest and drug use and counternarcotics policy. More about Ernesto Londoño
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