PARIS — Marine Le Pen, the frontrunner to be next French president, has a massive decision to make: Having been banned from standing in 2027’s election, does she go quietly or does she burn the house down?
What she chooses will have a huge impact on the country’s politics over the next couple of years and beyond, and whatever path she follows, it’s fraught with risk and complications.
In a French court on Monday, she was found guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds and immediately banned from running for office for five years. If her appeal fails, she will get a four-year prison sentence ― two of which were suspended and two of which would be served under house arrest.
She could opt to stand aside and give her protégé, Jordan Bardella ― though only 29 ― the clearest run possible to win support ahead of the next presidential election. But would giving such an inexperienced candidate the crown reduce the chances that her party, the National Rally, takes the presidency in the 2027 election? And would meekly standing aside waste the political capital that Monday’s verdict might bring?
Or she could dig her heels in and unleash an almighty blitzkrieg, castigating the French justice system with one hand and bringing down the government with the other. But would that outrage French voters so much that the party she’s spent her life building would rapidly lose support?
Already, Le Pen’s allies are calling the decision a democratic scandal, suggesting she will not take the verdict lying down. There’s a long way to go.
French politics just got more chaotic
Le Pen is one of the most recognizable, and most popular, faces in French politics. Her party is the largest in the French parliament and nabbed the largest share of the vote in last year’s European election.
In the short term, it’s President Emmanuel Macron’s government that might take the hit. In recent days, National Rally heavyweights have been threatening to collapse it, ostensibly over energy policy. Loyalists close to Le Pen may be tempted now to follow through with those threats.
The government, led by the centrist Prime Minister François Bayrou, has a fragile grip on power.
The far-right party could table a motion of no confidence over energy policy, which could be successful if other opposition parties ― it would need the left to join in ― decide to vote in favor. The National Rally has held back from toppling the government since Bayrou was appointed in December.
Le Pen, who left the courthouse before her verdict was handed down, may decide to take a page from the playbook of U.S. President Donald Trump who campaigned against legal proceedings launched against him.
She could portray the decision as left-wing political vendetta and try to galvanize her supporters to campaign against the political establishment. In that, she’d be echoing remarks made by Trump ally Elon Musk on Monday, who said that “when the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents.”
Earlier in the day, Le Pen was silent and appeared stunned, but she’s expected to give an interview on French television on Monday evening.
Although the party has its roots in extreme-right racism and antisemitism, Le Pen has fought to normalize it and widen her electoral base. She has always said she would strive to uphold the institutions of the French Republic, but Monday’s bombshell changes everything.
French politics has been fractious in recent years, with many spontaneous political movements springing up — the most prominent being the 2018 anti-Macron Yellow Vest protest, which turned violent.
While Le Pen is likely to resist calling for violence personally, the verdict could fuel resentment in a country whose voters are already frustrated with how things are run.
Bardella, the sub
In a post on X, Bardella slammed the court verdict as an attack on the separation of powers in France, with an unjust sentencing that was tantamount to democracy being “executed.”
His hashtag #IsupportMarine and his call for “a popular, peaceful mobilization,” raises the specter that Le Pen will adopt a Trumpian attitude to the verdict and slam the justice system.
“I think people will be disgusted, will be more and more disgusted with the way our system works and this new kind of totalitarianism from European Union leaders,” said Bruno Gollnisch, a former European lawmaker from Le Pen’s party who was also convicted at the trial.
But Le Pen’s potentially angry backlash ― besides an appeal process ― and her party’s long tradition of deference towards its leader may also undermine the National Rally’s ability to bounce back.
Most National Rally heavyweights worship Le Pen, who they call “The Boss” in private.
“We all have one thing in common, and it is that we are fans of her,” one of her top lieutenants recently said.
Bardella is first in line to replace Le Pen as the far right’s presidential candidate, but many have voiced doubts over his ability to take over the mantle from his mentor and unite a party devoted to the Le Pen family.
Bardella can hardly boast the same political career and gravitas. Recent missteps, such as a failed trip to Washington D.C. for the right-wing Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), and his lack of experience with the high pressure marathon of a presidential bid will come into the spotlight should he throw his hat into the ring to be president.
So far, Bardella’s success has often been put down to his proximity to the successful Le Pen ― his slickness and youth contrasting with her more somber personality and experience. On his own, many observers doubt he would be able to differentiate himself from other, more mainstream right-wing candidates, such as Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau and Eric Ciotti.
Retailleau may be tempted to break away from government in order to turbocharge his candidacy and woo Le Pen voters before they think about switching to her successor. This could be the case particularly if Le Pen’s engages in a drawn-out battle to clear her name.
In an Ifop poll published Sunday, Bardella lands similar vote shares than Le Pen for the 2027 presidential election’s first round, but performs slightly below his mentor in a hypothetical runoff against a centrist candidate.
French politics has been shaped in recent years by Le Pen’s relentless rise, with far-right ideas on immigration and Islam becoming more mainstream ― while political opponents find ways to build alliances to keep her out of power.
Amid the unpredictability engulfing French politics today, one thing is suddenly almost certain: neither Macron nor Le Pen, the two most important politicians in France today, will be running for president in 2027.
Victor Goury-Laffont contributed to this report.
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