Washington has brandished a proposed Black Sea ceasefire as evidence the Trump administration can shift the dial in Russia’s war on Ukraine but Kyiv and its allies may be wary Russian President Vladimir Putin could emerge from the deal with the upper hand.
After three days of talks in Saudi Arabia involving American, Ukrainian and Russian delegations, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the U.S. was evaluating Russia’s terms after Moscow agreed “in principle” to a ceasefire deal. These include ending the use of commercial vessels for military purposes but the Kremlin wants sanctions to be lifted in return.
But two Ukrainian politicians have told Newsweek the deal offered no clarity on whether Ukraine’s ports would be protected, while a maritime expert said it could undo all the gains Kyiv had made with its strikes on Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministries for comment.
Why It Matters
Following the Riyadh talks, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky said he was optimistic that the Black Sea ceasefire could usher in further moves toward a longer-term peace deal. But Ukraine and its allies fear Russia might get the advantage in the push by the Trump administration for swift diplomatic progress.
What To Know
Earlier in March, Ukraine had agreed to a U.S.-proposed full 30-day ceasefire that Russia refused. The most recent Saudi talks concluded with plans to facilitate Black Sea shipping and halt long-range strikes on energy infrastructure.
U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said the focus is for a maritime ceasefire so both countries can reboot the trade of grain and fuel. Putin indicated he favored a revival of the Black Sea Grain initiative, which Moscow withdrew from.
But Ukraine has already carved out a trade route requiring ships to sail near its coast guided by the Ukrainian Navy, thus already re-establishing its main grain export route and trade to near pre-war levels.
Ukraine May Relinquish Black Sea Clout
Kyiv may have to relinquish its clout in the Black Sea where its missile and drone strikes have driven Russia’s navy from its base in Sevastopol in the Crimean Peninsula.
“We should acknowledge the understated but remarkable success that Ukraine has had in winning the battle of the Black Sea and holding the Russian Navy and merchant fleet at risk there,” retired U.S. Vice Admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek.
“It is not surprising that Moscow would seek a deal which would allow them to operate more freely in the face of the continued Ukranian success in the maritime operations,” said Murrett, deputy director of the Syracuse University Institute for Security Policy and Law.
Officials from Romania and Bulgaria told the Financial Times about their fears a deal between the U.S. and Moscow could expand the Russian navy’s operational area, restoring its influence in waters that lap the shores of all three.
This could also cost Ukraine a bargaining chip in future peace talks before any deal about a broader ceasefire can be agreed.
Yörük Işık, head of the Istanbul-based Bosphorus Observer consultancy, told Newsweek the Riyadh talks had not yielded a deal but rather “a surrender document to Kremlin talking points.”
“It gives Russia the opportunity to bring its navy out to rest of the Black Sea and will reset all the gains obtained by Ukraine,” he said. “That means, at any given moment, Ukraine’s operational posts are under Russian threat again.”
Russia May Get Sanctions Eased
Even if Putin suggested he backed a revival of the grain deal, Russia wants a lot in return, namely an easing of sanctions on its food producers, exporters, and financial institutions—including Rosselkhozbank.
Moscow also wants to be reconnected to the SWIFT payment system it was kicked out of at the start of Putin’s war of aggression.
But these Western-led sanctions were aimed at isolating Russia from the global financial system to choke off funding for its war machine. There is already a tough fight to curb Russia’s restricted oil exports which continue apace through a shadow fleet and Kyiv and its lobbyists do not want any move that takes the gas off these measures.
In addition, the Black Sea ceasefire offers little clarity on security for Ukrainian ports. Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian MP, member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), said for the agreement to be fair, it must extend beyond the frequently targeted city of Odesa to the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv, which Russia has blocked and mined.
“The ceasefire in the Black Sea is important for Ukraine and we are glad that the United States is making efforts to achieve it but there are some concerns about the details,” Goncharenko told Newsweek.
Another Ukrainian MP, Kira Rudik, leader of Ukraine’s Holos party, also agreed the critical question remains whether Ukraine’s ports would be protected from Russian attacks and that there is no certainty if Moscow will comply with any agreement.
She said Putin may simply use the agreement to play for time with the hope of taking advantage on the battlefield.
Energy Infrastructure Strikes
The ceasefire plan by both sides included a halt to long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, but this appears to be less of a concession for Moscow. This is because Kyiv’s strikes tend to target Russia’s oil facilities linked to its war effort, while Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities aim to demoralize the population in winter.
Hein Goemans, an expert on war termination and territorial disputes from the University of Rochester, told Newsweek that the Black Sea agreement as it stands “doesn’t really mean much.”
The deal would be reasonable if Washington were willing to enforce it,” he said. “Ukraine should not believe this deal is in any way credible if the U.S. is not willing to commit to sanctions if Russia reneges, which it will.”
“Russia has not compromised on any dimension,” he added. “Maybe this will allow Ukraine to export its grain, but a lot of that already went smoothly.”
What People Are Saying
Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak told the Interfax Ukraine news agency: “Something tells me this is more advantageous for the enemy.”
Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik: “As of right now, Russia’s attacks continue on our peaceful cities and we do not have any confirmation that Russia is ready for peace or ready to execute on the matters that they have agreed in Riyadh.”
What Happens Next
Russian officials have greeted the talks with optimism, and Zelensky said it was a a good start, but the uncertainty over the Black Sea deal’s details indicate the path to a truce could be long and complicated.
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