Sunday’s Elite Eight matchups both feature the teams that entered the NCAA Tournament as the favorites in the South and Midwest Regions.
The action starts in the Midwest at 2:20 p.m. ET with Tennessee (2) vs. Houston (1) in a battle between two of the best defensive teams in the nation. Coach Rick Barnes’ Vols (30-7, 12-6 SEC) and Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars (33-4, 19-1) both spent most of the season ranked in the top 10 in the nation, and they’ve lived up to their high expectations in the postseason.
Tennessee reached the Elite Eight with victories over Wofford (15), UCLA (7) and Kentucky (3), winning all three of those games by at least nine points.
Houston, on the other hand, blew out 16-seed SIU Edwardsville in the round of 64, but survived close calls against both Gonzaga (8) and Purdue (4).
Tennessee vs. Houston Spread, ML, Total
How to Watch Tennessee vs. Houston
- Tipoff: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
Best Tennessee vs. Houston Player Props
Jordan Gainey o10.5 points (-110 at FD) — 0.5 units
Oddsmakers expect this to be a rock fight, hence the total of 124.5.
Low-scoring matchups aren’t exactly ideal for prop bettors, but Tennessee sixth man Jordan Gainey feels like a good bet to score at least 11 points.
While Gainey comes off the bench, he plays starter minutes, and he’s been hot ever since the calendar turned to March. In his last nine games dating back to March 1, Gainey has scored at least 10 points seven times, and he’s averaging 14.3 points per game in this stretch.
His recent numbers against teams ranked in the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency are why he’s worth backing in this difficult spot.
Below is a look at Gainey’s scoring production in four late-season games against top-15 defenses, per Bart Torvik:
With those numbers in mind, he feels like as safe a points prop bet as anyone in this contest.
Tennessee vs. Houston Prediction, Best Bets
The Volunteers and Cougars are not just strong defensive teams, but they also both play at a slow pace (both average less than 65 possessions per 40 means) that means it might only take 60 points to win this game.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of these teams win, but I’m leaning toward Houston here given that it has only lost one game since February. Sampson’s track record in high-pressure NCAA Tournament games like this one is also better than Barnes’, who has led Tennessee to a 5-seed or better in seven straight NCAA Tournaments, but has never taken the program to a Final Four.
With Sampson’s team currently healthy in March for the first time since it reached the Final Four in 2021, I like Houston to win yet another game that comes down to the final minutes.
Let’s go with the slight favorites and the under given how comfortable both these teams are in low-possession games.
Tennessee vs. Houston Best Bets
- Houston -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings) — 0.5 units
- Under 124.5 (-105 at DraftKings) — 0.5 units
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