“What we are seeing today is the justified anger of the young generation, whose future has been ripped away from them as a result of prolonged authoritarianism and persistent poverty,” explains Turkish political scientist Begum Uzun, who teaches at MEF University in Istanbul and is also a co-coordinator at the Istanbul Youth Research Center.
Protesters in Turkey have once again taken to the streets their rights. But this is not something new. In recent years there have been various turning points, ones that surprised people but somehow didn’t shock them. The rule of law keeps being chipped away in Turkey so that when these things happen, many people simply think, “it can’t get any worse than this.” Then it does.
The arrest of the , one of the biggest cities in Europe, is just the latest in a series of authoritarian moves. Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu had a good chance of mounting a successful challenge against long-time rival in the next presidential elections. Erdogan has been in power for more than two decades in various positions.
“What the goes beyond anything we have seen before,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University, who has conducted research into authoritarian trends in Turkey. He said there had been an “unprecedented authoritarian escalation” and added that although journalists and academics had been arrested in the past, what was happening today brought a “new dimension” to the repression.
Could Erdogan beat Imamoglu?
Many see the arrest of Imamoglu as deliberate and believe Erdogan resorted to this step because he did not think he could win the next election by democratic means.
“Erdogan understood that he could not defeat Imamoglu,” said Esen, explaining that Erdogan “wanted to act before a clash in the election campaign.”
Esen says Turkey is no longer a “competitive authoritarian” regime, in which the opposition can, at least in theory, still win an election. Now it is a “hegemonic and authoritarian” regime, similar to Russia or Venezuela, where a change of system seems almost impossible.
Imamoglu has proven in the past that it is still possible to win an election democratically in despite all the obstacles. In 2019, he of , after beating the candidate for Erdogan’s conservative , which had ruled the city for 25 years.
Before his imprisonment earlier this month, it had become clear that Imamoglu’s party, the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, planned for him to run against Erdogan in the next presidential election, slated for 2028.
As it stands, the Turkish constitution prohibits Erdogan from running again in 2028 but many observers presume that he would have the rules amended so he can. “He and his followers want him to stay in power and he is shaping his regime accordingly,” Esen said, noting there were no signs the AKP was looking for a potential successor to Erdogan.
“Imamoglu represents hope”
But was it worth risking the mobilization of millions of unhappy Turks by arresting Imamoglu? Murat Koyuncu (not his real name), a former advisor to Imamoglu, told DW that Erdogan was a “vindictive person.”
The Turkish president “holds grudges against many people. If you irritate or expose him, he will come back sooner or later. He has already taken many people to task and now it was Imamoglu’s turn,” Koyuncu said.
On March 31, 2024, the social democratic CHP won local elections that took place across Turkey and became the most important force in the country for the first time since 1977. Many said the CHP’s success was largely thanks to Imamoglu. “There are so many people who want to live in a real democracy,” said Koyuncu. “Imamoglu represents their hope.” And that is exactly what Erdogan could not stand, he argued.
What next?
So what does the future hold? Koyuncu is pessimistic. “We are only at the beginning. It will get worse,” he told DW. “I expect a second and third wave. We will see another exodus, even more young, educated people will leave the country.”
Seren Selvin Korkmaz, the director of the think tank, the Istanbul Political Research Institute, also expects repression to increase: “Such regimes either reform themselves or they increase the pressure,” Korkmaz said. “The pressure will continue to increase in the near future. There will be no room for relaxation or reform.”
She pointed out that Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, co-leader of the popular Peoples’ Democratic Party, had been in jail since 2016. “We are talking about a regime that bans or obstructs its shining stars. The practice of eliminating successful political actors is likely to continue,” Korkmaz suggested.
Despite all the pessimism, Esen believes there could still be a turnaround. “Imamoglu has become a political symbol. Social resistance is strong because young people have nothing left to lose. I think that Turkey will stop two stops before and . So, is all this reversible? Yes, but it will be difficult.”
He anticipates a long, rocky road ahead and further deterioration before things improve. And until then, Esen concluded, “anything can happen. Really, anything can happen.”
Gülsen Solaker contributed to this article, which was translated from German.
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