Fans of high-octane hoops could be in for an absolute fever dream of an Elite Eight clash when Alabama (2) vs. Duke (1) tips off from the Prudential Center in Newark at 8:49 p.m. ET tonight.
Whether you go by the advanced metrics like KenPom, the eye test, or both, the offensive credentials of both the Tide (28-8, 13-5 SEC) and the Blue Devils (34-3, 19-1 ACC) are unassailable.
Duke is No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, just ahead of Bama at No. 3. While the Tide aren’t quite as balanced as the Devils — somehow, Duke is top-10 nationally in both 2-point shooting percentage and 3-point shooting percentage — ask BYU how it works out when you “force” Mark Sears and Co. to “settle” for 3-pointers.
One more note on how lights-out Alabama was in Thursday night’s jaw-dropping statement win, 113-88, over BYU. Bama, which made a record-setting 25 (!) three-pointers, would have won that game if it missed all 15 of its 2-point attempts.
How to Watch Alabama vs. Duke
- Tipoff: 8:49 p.m. ET
- Channel: TBS/truTV
Alabama vs. Duke Odds: Spread, ML, Total
Best Alabama vs. Duke Player Props
Cooper Flagg Player Props vs. Alabama
Flagg’s props are always set insanely high, but these benchmarks, at these prices, are preposterous. There’s a case to be made for Flagg going under 24.5 points, but I strongly recommend staying away.
Points
- FanDuel — Over 24.5 (-115); Under 24.5 (-105)
- bet365 — Over 25.5 (-115); Under 25.5 (-115)
Rebounds
- FanDuel — Over 7.5 (-126); Under 7.5 (-110)
- bet365 — Over 7.5 (-145); Under 7.5 (+115)
Mark Sears Over 20.5 points (-110 at FD) — 1 units
If you like Bama to keep tonight’s game close (and personally, I have a hard team seeing a team that can score like the Tide getting blown out), then you have to love Sears’ chances of another big scoring night.
The speedy All-SEC guard was a high-volume, lights-out shooter a year ago at 43.6 percent from downtown, but “struggled” this year, knocking down 34.8 percent of his 7.1 3PA per game.
Anyone who watched Bama this year could tell you that dip in his percentage was due to the difficulty of the shots he takes more than any dropoff in talent. Sure enough, when BYU made the regrettable decision to live with clean looks from deep by Sears on Thursday night, he shredded them for 34 points on 10-for-16 3-point shooting.
Duke’s rangy, impressive guards will probably hound Sears off the 3-point line enough to prevent him from getting anywhere near 16 three’s up, but he’s more than capable of driving right by defenders who try to crowd him 25 feet from the bucket.
I think Sears will be less effective vs. Duke than he was vs. BYU — and he’ll have to get it done in a different way — but his incredible versatility makes him a great bet to get to at least 20 points in a game as high-scoring as this one is expected to be.
Suggesting that Sears can fill it up even if Duke takes away the three-ball tonight admittedly sounds a little absurd. But if you’re skeptical, keep in mind what happened when he was held to one made 3-pointer or fewer this year. He scored at least 10 points in 10 of 14 such games, with 15 or more in five of them.
Alabama vs. Duke Betting Analysis
What happens if Duke prevents the Tide from running?
That’s probably the question on your mind if you don’t like Alabama to at least cover tonight. The possibility of a slow pace forcing Bama out of its comfort zone is certainly worth considering.
Maybe it’s just me, but expecting Duke to turn this into a slog seems a bit like asking someone for Alabama to go lock up Cooper Flagg.
Obviously, no one’s suggesting the latter, but dramatically slowing down Alabama doesn’t strike me as a realistic strategy, either.
So yeah, I think this will be fast-paced, high-scoring and close. But to avoid jinxing it and dooming us all to a disappointing dud, I’ll stop short of predicting an instant classic.
What I will take is Alabama to cover as heavy underdogs. Right now, this team shouldn’t be getting 7 points against anyone (though I am aware Alabama lost a few games this year by a significant margin).
Also worth noting: the Devils’ win over Arizona showed how hard it is to blow someone out when you’re under as much scrutiny as Flagg and Co. The Devils led that one by as many as 19 points with just 13 minutes left, but still failed to cover the 9-point spread.
The other reason I like Bama to hang is its depth.
It’s hard to overstate what an advantage Duke’s tremendous bench provides against most opponents. But if the Tide, who regularly play 10 or 11 guys, fail to keep this close, it won’t be for a lack of depth.
Alabama vs. Duke Prediction, Best Bets
I haven’t quite talked myself into Duke actually losing, but one last reason to take Bama to at least cover is how well coach Nate Oats’ team has played in the NCAA Tournament each of the last two years. In 2024, Bama not only reached the Final Four, but scored at least 89 points or more in three of its four wins.
And this year, they hung 80 points on one of the best defensive teams in the country, Saint Mary’s, in the second round. Then, in the Sweet 16 (as you may have heard), the Tide scored 100 points with nearly seven minutes left in the game vs. BYU.
Let’s go with Bama to cover, which I’ve beaten to death at this point, and Duke to go over its team total. The Devils might get upset, but if Bama pulls this off, it will be because of its scoring, not its defense.
Best Bets:
- Alabama +7 (-110 at bet365) — 1 unit
- Duke Team Total Over 90.5 (-112 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
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