Islamabad, Pakistan – The Pakistan government has launched an ambitious agricultural project with the aim of boosting food security in the South Asian nation of 240 million people.
A network of six canals will be built across the country to irrigate millions of acres of barren lands as part of the $3.3bn (945 billion rupees) project called Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI), which was launched by the country’s powerful army chief General Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in 2023.
Inaugurated by Munir and the chief minister of Punjab province last month, the canal project has been hailed by supporters as a game-changer that will transform vast desert lands into fertile farmland.
Munir praised Punjab, the most populous province, for its role as the “powerhouse of Pakistan’s agriculture”, adding that the military would continue its support for the country’s economic growth.
But critics say the megaproject, which aims to build canals across Pakistan’s four provinces, would cause water shortages in the southern parts of the country. They say the project was planned without consent from stakeholders.
The GPI, according to many sceptics, will further stress Pakistan’s river system, which has seen decreasing water levels due to climate change and overexploitation.
Numerous protests have taken place in the southern province of Sindh since the project was announced, with the latest demonstration taking place on March 25 in major cities including Karachi, led by Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the governing party in Sindh which is also supporting the Sharif-led government.
So, what is the GPI? What is its scope? And why are some of its proposed canals facing such strong resistance?
Why have people protested in Sindh?
Water allocation has long been a political flashpoint in Pakistan, and Sindh, as a lower riparian province, fears that losing water to upstream developments could spell disaster.
Since the government announced its intention to develop canals on the Indus – the country’s largest river and water lifeline — thousands of people, including women and children, have taken to the streets.
A protest rally was held on February 16 in Bhit Shah in Sindh, in which participants railed against the canal system, expressing their fear that Sindh’s water share would be potentially reduced. Sindh depends on water from the Indus River system for drinking as well as agricultural purposes.
What is the Green Pakistan Initiative?
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing nearly 25 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and providing 37 percent of its employment.
The GPI was launched in July 2023 to address outdated farming practices to improve productivity.
It aims to modernise the agricultural sector by introducing new technologies and equipment, including drones, land management systems, and tractors, as well as providing seeds and fertilisers to increase yields.
The project also aims to provide technical inputs to farmers, including soil testing among other services, and attract both domestic and foreign investment to create what Munir described as “modern farms” at the project’s inauguration in Islamabad in 2023.
Pakistan imported $9bn worth of food items in 2023, even as it has faced a balance of payment crisis and has been forced to borrow funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Green Corporate Initiative (GCI), an army-owned private company, has been tasked with converting wastelands into cultivable farmland.
“Revitalising agriculture is essential for the economy, particularly as Pakistan faces climate-related threats,” retired army general Shahid Nazir, who heads the GPI, told Al Jazeera.
Nazir said 4.8 million acres (1.94 million hectares) of “barren wasteland” has been identified across the country.
Making that land cultivable would also provide employment opportunities to more than 60,000 people, he added.
The military wields immense influence in the country, having directly ruled Pakistan for more than three decades, and runs several commercial entities in the real estate, agriculture, construction and other sectors.
According to the GPI, the project will focus on growing “target crops”, including cotton, wheat, canola, sunflower, rice, and lentils, among others.
Under the plan, the company will lease land for 30 years through different business models, in which a minimum of 1,000 acres (405 hectares) will be allocated to investors, who could be both foreign as well as domestic large-scale investors.
However, Nazir added that the ultimate objective is to use the large-scale investment as a model for small farmers, who could then collaborate with other small farmers to upgrade their farming techniques, bringing them up to speed with contemporary practices.
What is the Cholistan Canal and why is it important?
The approvals for the “six strategic canals” were given by President Asif Ali Zardari in July 2024, who is from Sindh and a co-chairperson of the PPP, after his meeting with GPI officials.
According to meeting minutes, these canals were deemed “vital for agricultural development and food security”, and Zardari approved their “simultaneous execution” while urging consistent funding from both federal and provincial governments.
Of the canals, the Cholistan is the largest and most critical project.
The 176km (109-mile) long canal, according to official documents, has three branches, with a total capacity of 4,120 cusecs (116,665 litres/second), and is expected to be completed by mid-2030, at an estimated cost of $783m.
To build the canal, authorities have acquired 1.2 million acres (485,623 hectares) of land in Punjab, with more than 90 percent of it in the Cholistan Desert, which borders India.
In the first phase, 452,000 acres of land will be covered, while 750,000 acres of land will be irrigated by the completion of the second phase. More than 170,000 acres of land in the Cholistan Desert are already used by private investors for cultivation.
According to the working paper prepared by the federal Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, “The construction of the Cholistan Canal is therefore seen as a critical intervention to transform the region by bringing reliable and sustainable water supplies to large areas of previously uncultivable land.”
“This project is also aligned with broader national goals, such as increasing food security, improving rural livelihoods, and promoting sustainable development in Pakistan’s less developed regions,” the paper said.
Nazir outlined three primary objectives for cultivating the Cholistan Desert: “developing land and increasing yield, enhancing biodiversity, and ensuring social impact”.
“While our local farmer is the ultimate goal, we want to collaborate with foreign investors as well as large-scale domestic investors,” he said.
The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), a high-level body co-chaired by the army chief and the prime minister, was created in 2023 to help investors bypass bureaucratic hurdles.
The move is aimed at attracting investors to Pakistan, a country facing severe economic challenges and currently engaged in a $7bn IMF bailout, its 25th since 1958.
Where will the water come from?
Following the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), a water distribution mechanism between Pakistan and India agreed upon in 1960, Pakistan has control of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers, whereas India controls the Sutlej, Ravi and Beas.
The proposed plan for canals states that they will be fed by excess floodwaters from the India-controlled Sutlej River. However, critics argue that relying solely on floodwater is an unreliable proposition.
Naseer Memon, an Islamabad-based environmental specialist, highlights that water flow in the eastern rivers of the Indus Basin – Sutlej, Ravi, and Beas – has been steadily declining due to the construction of dams as well as climate change.
“If you look at the flow data, between 1976 and 1998, the average flow was 9.35 million acre-feet (MAF). From 1999 to 2022, it has dropped to just 2.96 MAF,” he told Al Jazeera.
A 2021 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) highlights that Pakistan relies solely on the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) for its basic food security and water supply.
The country saves only 10 percent of its river water compared with a global average of 40 percent. Moreover, the FAO says Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed nations in the world, withdrawing nearly 75 percent of its total renewable water resources.
The IBIS is one of the largest contiguous irrigation systems in the world, helping irrigate about 44 million acres (18 million hectares) of land in Pakistan and operates through “three major multipurpose storage reservoirs, 19 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals and 45 major irrigation canals”, according to FAO.
What are the critics saying?
Water distribution in Pakistan is overseen by the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), a regulatory body established in 1992 to equitably distribute Indus River water among the four provinces.
Despite opposition from Sindh’s IRSA representative Ehsan Leghari, the authority last month issued a certificate essentially accepting that there was enough water available for the Cholistan Canal.
In his dissenting note, Leghari warned that this might require water from the Indus to be redirected towards the Cholistan Canal, which, he argued, would be “unfair to Sindh”.
“The analysis of data of the Indus basin in Pakistan has indicated in many reports that the water use in the Indus basin already exceeds the availability, and the Indus basin is passing through critical state, not able to meet existing irrigated, drinking water needs and unable to stop sea water intrusion,” Leghari wrote in his note.
The Sindh government, which is led by the PPP, an ally of Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN), has passed a unanimous resolution in the provincial assembly, demanding an immediate halt to all activities related to the canal project.
A senior leader from the PPP has also criticised the project, saying it would have a detrimental effect on the agricultural sector in Sindh.
Sherry Rehman, the party’s leader in the upper house of parliament, warned that the project would lead to the desertification of Sindh’s fertile lands.
Memon, the water expert, questioned the lack of transparency from the military and Punjab’s government on how irrigation water would be sourced.
“If Sutlej does not have enough water and Punjab diverts from the Jhelum River, Punjab’s shortfall may then be compensated by taking more water from the Indus, depriving Sindh,” he said.
Adding to the concerns highlighted by Memon, an official IRSA memo last week warned of water shortages, stating that Punjab had already faced a 20 percent shortfall and Sindh 14 percent, with potential shortages rising to 30 to 35 percent in the coming months.
Memon agreed that improving agricultural practices and bringing them on par with modern practices is necessary, but said, “The process has to be transparent and equitable.”
“Punjab’s own share of water is guaranteed through the existing system of canals. But when new irrigation areas are planned, without explaining where the water is coming from, it is inevitable that people in Sindh will express their anger and protest.”
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