Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. It has been a whirlwind of a week thanks to Signalgate—the group chat heard around the world.
The evolving scandal has already prompted major concern in Washington and beyond. Signalgate was the main topic in hearings held by both the House and Senate intelligence committees this week that became extremely contentious at times, but we still have many open questions about how it all happened and what the broader consequences will be. On paper, these hearings were meant to focus on the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment—and we’ll be getting into that more in today’s lead story.
On that note, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The U.S. intelligence community lists drug cartels as a top national security threat, the Trump administration’s OPSEC problems mount, and Trump withdraws Elise Stefanik’s nomination for U.N. ambassador.
The U.S. intelligence community recently released its annual threat assessment, which offers a window into the Trump administration’s unconventional worldview. The report’s release was overshadowed by the Signalgate scandal, but reviewing it reveals just how drastically Trump 2.0 is shifting U.S. foreign policy and national security priorities.
Drug cartels listed as top threat. The report cites drug cartels that traffic fentanyl and other synthetic opioids as the top threat, mentioning them even before state actors such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
“Cartels are largely responsible for the more than 52,000 U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids in the 12 months ending in October 2024 and helped facilitate the nearly three million illegal migrant arrivals in 2024, straining resources and putting U.S. communities at risk,” the assessment states.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, zeroed in on drug cartels getting ranked above other threats at a hearing on Tuesday, noting, “For the first time, the annual threat assessment lists foreign illicit drug actors as the very first threat to our country.”
President Donald Trump has made combating fentanyl deaths a priority, linking the issue to his hard-line immigration policy as well as the tariffs he has imposed on Mexico and Canada—though just 43 pounds of fentanyl were seized at the Canadian border by U.S. authorities in the last fiscal year. The president this year designated certain cartels as foreign terrorist organizations for the first time via an executive order.
China deemed top military threat. The report states that China presents “the most comprehensive and robust military threat to U.S. national security” and notes that the Chinese military is making “steady but uneven progress on capabilities it would use in an attempt to seize Taiwan and deter—and if necessary, defeat—U.S. military intervention.”
The assessment also characterizes China as a top cyberthreat and highlights Beijing’s ambitions on artificial intelligence. The report warns of China’s ability to compromise U.S. infrastructure via its “formidable cyber capabilities” and states that Beijing “almost certainly has a multifaceted, national-level strategy designed to displace the United States as the world’s most influential AI power by 2030.”
These views don’t represent a major departure from the national security orthodoxy in Washington, where China has for years been deemed a top U.S. adversary by politicians on both sides of the aisle. Trump appears poised to continue taking a hawkish stance toward Beijing, particularly on tech and trade policy—though the president this week suggested that China could receive a tariff reduction to help push through a deal for TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the popular video-sharing app.
Russia and Ukraine. The report states that Russia has “seized the upper hand in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is on a path to accrue greater leverage” to pressure Kyiv and the West for more concessions in peace talks.
It goes on to say the continuation of the war “perpetuates strategic risks to the United States,” including the “unintended escalation to large-scale war” and “the potential use of nuclear weapons.” Further down in the report, the intelligence community also warns that Russia possesses “the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons stockpile that, along with its deployed ground-, air-, and sea-based delivery systems, could inflict catastrophic damage to the Homeland.”
This comes as the Trump administration is rapidly pushing for an end to the war in Ukraine, which has seen the president take an aggressive stance toward Kyiv at times—including lambasting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a now-infamous Oval Office meeting last month, after which the Trump administration temporarily halted aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine.
Critics of Trump have accused him of siding with Moscow over Kyiv and beating up on a friendly country that was attacked by a far more powerful U.S. adversary.
The intelligence community’s assessment raises questions as to whether Ukraine and Russia are committed to quickly ending the war, as Trump has pushed for.
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelensky “are interested in continuing discussions with the United States on how to end the war and have shown a willingness to test partial ceasefires,” the report states, before adding, “However, both leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement.”
Trump this week said both countries want to see the war end, but he conceded that the Russians might be “dragging their feet” as Moscow continues to seek major concessions—stalling progress on even partial cease-fire agreements. So far, though, Trump hasn’t publicly pressured Putin the way he has Zelensky.
Climate change not mentioned. The assessment had a glaring omission that’s indicative of the Trump administration’s sharp departure from traditional views on national security in Washington. Though climate change has been listed as a threat in the intelligence community’s annual assessments for years, including under the first Trump administration, it was not mentioned once in the new report.
Sen. Angus King, an independent from Maine, grilled Gabbard on this at Tuesday’s hearing.
“Every single one of these reports that we have had has mentioned global climate change as a significant national security threat except this one. Has something happened? Has global climate change been solved? Why is that not in this report, and who made the decision that it should not be in the report, when it’s been in every one of the 11 prior reports?” King asked.
Gabbard replied she did not “recall” giving instructions to deliberately omit climate change from the report. “What I focused this annual threat assessment on, and the IC [intelligence community] focused this threat assessment on, are the most extreme and critical direct threats to our national security,” Gabbard said.
Climate change has fueled mass displacement, economic instability, and violent conflict across the world, which is why the Defense Department has characterized climate change as a “threat multiplier” for years.
Leaving climate change out of this year’s threat assessment aligns with the Trump administration’s broader approach to the issue. Trump has repeatedly referred to climate change as a hoax, and his administration has taken rapid steps to dismantle regulations aimed at reducing planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, hampering the government’s ability to combat climate change.
“[W]e are driving a dagger through the heart of climate-change religion and ushering in America’s Golden Age,” Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this month.
Trump has withdrawn Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations over concerns about the Republican Party’s slim majority in the House.
“As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress,” Trump said Thursday in a post on his Truth Social platform. “We must be unified to accomplish our Mission, and Elise Stefanik has been a vital part of our efforts from the very beginning. I have asked Elise, as one of my biggest Allies, to remain in Congress to help me deliver Historic Tax Cuts, GREAT Jobs, Record Economic Growth, a Secure Border, Energy Dominance, Peace Through Strength, and much more, so we can MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat.”
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
More OPSEC oopsies. Amid Signalgate, journalists have found additional alarming vulnerabilities in the group chat participants’ cellphone usage. On Wednesday, German publication Der Spiegel reported that it had discovered multiple passwords and contact details for Gabbard, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz easily available online—including for purchase on commercial contact databases and as part of password leaks from previously hacked material. Der Spiegel reporters were able to link that data to email addresses and accounts on platforms such as WhatsApp, Signal, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Finding Hegseth’s mobile number and email address was “particularly easy,” they wrote.
Separately, Wired magazine found an account on the peer-to-peer payments app Venmo that appears to belong to Waltz and was set to “public” until they asked him about it, revealing names of several contacts including journalists, lobbyists, military officers, and even White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. This isn’t the U.S. government’s first high-profile Venmo vulnerability, however—in 2021, reporters at BuzzFeed News found then-U.S. President Joe Biden’s Venmo account with similarly lax protections.
RFE/RL reprieve. The Trump administration said on Thursday that it was restoring grant funding to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) in response to a lawsuit by the U.S. government-funded media outlet against the administration’s effort to cancel that funding. Royce Lamberth, the U.S. District Court judge presiding over the case, had ruled earlier in the week that the administration could not terminate RFE/RL’s congressionally mandated funding.
“This is an encouraging sign that RFE/RL’s operations will be able to continue, as Congress intended,” RFE/RL President and CEO Stephen Capus said in a statement on Thursday. “This is not the time for RFE/RL to go silent. Millions of people rely on us for factual information in places where censorship is widespread. We must not cede ground to our adversaries at a time when threats to America are on the rise.”
Founded in 1950 and initially funded by the CIA to broadcast U.S. news into Soviet nations behind the Iron Curtain during the Cold War, RFE/RL and its staff of more than 1,700 journalists currently broadcast in 23 countries across 27 different languages.
Palestinians protest Hamas. Palestinians in Gaza took to the streets this week to protest against Hamas, a rare occurrence in the coastal territory. The protests reportedly marked the largest demonstrations against the militant group since the Israel-Hamas war began. The protests came after phase one of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire expired and the two sides failed to agree on a phase two deal, prompting Israel to renew airstrikes on Gaza, followed by a resumption of ground operations. Protesters could reportedly be heard referring to Hamas as “terrorists” and chanting, “For god’s sake, Hamas out.”
The demonstrations suggest that many Palestinians in Gaza are getting fed up with Hamas, which has ruled the territory since 2007, and want to see a change in leadership on top of an end to the devastating war.
Israel launched its war in Gaza after a Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that saw roughly 1,200 people killed in Israel and hundreds of people taken hostage. The death toll in Gaza recently surpassed 50,000, according to Palestinian health authorities.
Tuesday, April 1: The Senate Armed Services Committee is set to hold a confirmation hearing for retired Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, Trump’s pick to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Wednesday, April 2: Trump’s wide-ranging reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to go into effect.
Thursday, April 3: NATO foreign ministers are set to meet in Brussels.
The Costs of War Project at the Watson Institute is hosting a webinar on the rising threats to journalists in conflict zones.
“The threat is in the house, the threat is across the dais, and I need to ask these questions. It’s my job to ask these questions of you.”
—Democratic Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, a former U.S. Air Force officer, in comments directed at Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe regarding Signalgate during a House Intelligence Committee hearing that was meant to focus on a worldwide threat assessment.
This story might haunt your dreams forever. A babysitter in Kansas recently found a man hiding under the bed of a child they were caring for after the kid complained about the presence of a “monster.” The babysitter wanted to reassure the child that there was nothing to be frightened about, only to come face-to-face with the male suspect. “An altercation ensued with the babysitter and one child was knocked over in the struggle. The suspect then fled the scene before deputies arrived,” the Barton County Sheriff’s Office said.
The suspect reportedly used to reside at the house where the incident occurred, but “there was currently a protection from abuse order issued against him to stay away from the property,” police said.
Maybe we should all check under our beds more often—just in case.
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