President Donald Trump has vowed to issue a fresh round of tariffs on April 2, presenting it as an inflection point for the economy weeks after a previous set of duties roiled markets and incited recession fears.
Trump has repeatedly referred to April 2 as “liberation day,” saying a wide-ranging slate of reciprocal tariffs would rebalance U.S. trade relationships.
Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs next week, however, is expected to be narrower than he previously vowed, though the plan remains under discussion, sources told ABC News this week.
The news of a potentially softer approach to forthcoming tariffs rallied U.S. stocks earlier this week, recovering some of the losses suffered earlier in March.
While key details remain unknown, new duties would ratchet up the global trade war, raising prices for an array of consumer goods and risking an economic slowdown, experts told ABC News.
“This certainly will be an escalation,” Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who studies trade policy, told ABC News. “We know the direction of travel, if not how far this will go.”
Here’s what the latest round of tariffs could mean for prices and the economy, according to experts:
Will the tariffs on April 2 raise prices?
In setting tariffs for April 2, the U.S. will target countries that have major trade imbalances with the U.S., sources said.
“It’s 15% of the countries, but it’s a huge amount of our trading volume,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week, describing the countries as a “Dirty 15.”
Last year, according to federal census data, the U.S. had its biggest trade deficits with China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada and India, among other nations.
Reciprocal tariffs could raise prices for imported goods from those countries, since importers typically pass along a share of the tax burden to consumers.
The tariffs could hike prices for furniture and consumer electronics from Vietnam, fresh fruits and vegetables from Mexico, and cars from South Korea, experts told ABC News.
“This is going to mean prices will ultimately go up,” Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told ABC News.
The scale of price increases will likely depend on the tariff rate set by the Trump administration, which remains unclear, the experts said.
Speaking at the White House on Monday, Trump said the reciprocal tariffs could fall short of the rate that target countries impose on U.S. goods.
“I may give a lot of countries breaks,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I’m embarrassed to charge them what they’ve charged us.”
Kyle Handley, a professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, said he expects consumer prices to rise enough for consumers to identify the change.
“Depending on what tariff rates they put in place, it could be pretty massive,” Handley said. “It will be a non-trivial increase in the price of imports. People will notice.”
What do the tariffs on April 2 mean for the economy?
Experts told ABC News the fresh tariffs would put downward pressure on U.S. economic growth, since the additional tax burden for importing businesses and uncertainty about additional duties could deter private sector investment.
“A lot of the uncertainty about tariffs very likely has firms sort of frozen in place as they’re waiting to evaluate and see what happens,” Miller said.
Looming tariffs also risk unease among shoppers, threatening to undermine a key engine of the U.S. economy, some experts said. Consumer attitudes worsened more than expected in March, dropping to their lowest levels since 2021, a Conference Board survey on Tuesday showed.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, could weaken if shopper sentiment sours, Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, told ABC News in a statement.
By some key measures, however, the economy remains in solid shape. A recent jobs report showed steady hiring last month and a historically low unemployment rate. Inflation stands well below a peak attained in 2022, though price increases register nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed’s goal of 2%.
Still, recession fears are mounting on Wall Street as businesses and consumers weather the trade war. Goldman Sachs earlier this month hiked its odds of a recession from 15% to 20%. Moody’s Analytics pegged the chances of a recession over the next year at 35%.
“These tariffs will be very detrimental for economic performance and business growth,” Handley said. “It may not take long for us to start seeing some of those effects.”
ABC News’ Selina Wang contributed to this report.
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