A strong start to Donald Trump‘s presidency is waning and swing voters are leading the rebuke, according to a new poll.
The president’s second term is just over two months old and has included plenty of focus on the United States’ global alliances as it pertains to the Russia-Ukraine war, in addition to domestic concerns about the economy and a potential looming recession due to a sporadic stock market and pushback to federal budget cuts being led by billionaire Elon Musk.
New polling from Impact Social suggests that Trump’s big advantages on “woke” issues and economic optimism have waned dramatically in recent months, showing an apparent rift between the electorate on the campaign trail and the one currently enduring his policies.
Why It Matters
Trump ran on a populist platform that some critics argued was even more “America First” than his first campaign and term that began nearly a decade ago.
The president pinned various social issues, like transgender rights affiliated with high school and college sports, or Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), squarely on Democrats‘ backs. The majority of voting Americans bought the messaging—leading to a resounding victory for Trump that included taking back all swing states he lost in 2020.
Further reducing inflation was part of that messaging, in contrast with the policies implemented by the Biden-Harris administration in response to a shaky economic outlook emanating from the COVID pandemic.
“Open borders” were also big campaign issues, spurred by most Americans embracing stricter regulations for immigrants entering and/or staying in the United States. Addressing such concern
What to Know
The Impact Social data tracker finds that although voter sentiment at this point compared to the first two months of Trump’s term in 2016 is higher, a disengaged Democratic opposition plus “total media domination” has essentially regressed to the mean.
“New data suggests that the tide, while not turning against him outright, is beginning to shift,” Phil Snape of Impact Social told Newsweek. “His swing voter net sentiment, which climbed to +4 after the election, has now settled at -12—not disastrous, but a sign that the near-total control of the narrative he once enjoyed is slipping.
“This decline is not driven by a single issue but by a mix of growing concerns, changing priorities, and renewed energy from the left.”
The data was accumulated between March 7-24 and employed algorithms to analyze the online and social media discussion in relation to Trump among swing voters following the November 2024 election. A database of over 40,000 voters goes back to the 2016 election.
Federal budget cuts instituted by the Department of Government Efficiency, an informal agency never approved by Congress and run by Musk, have galvanized swaths of the voter base.
Musk’s presence across the federal government has led to decreasing stock valuations for Tesla, which he owns, and various protests nationwide that have in some cases become violent.
On April 5, disenfranchised Americans are being encouraged to protest the Trump administration’s policies as part of a national movement in myriad cities, hosted by a group of older Americans called Third Act.
Snape said that the Trump’s strongest support still comes from opposition to the Democrats (21 percent) rather than enthusiasm for his own policies—outnumbering the 11 percent who approve of his immigration action and 15 percent who approved of his broader agenda.
But recently anti-woke sentiment accounts for just 4 percent of positive discussion, which Snape described as “a strikingly low number considering its importance during the election run-up.”
Economic optimism comes in even lower, at just 2 percent.
Tariffs and economic policy (9 percent) are now generating as much negative discussion as Trump’s stance on Russia (9 percent). On the latter point, the United States’ relationship Russia and President Vladimir Putin “is feeding a more general sense of uncertainty,” according to Snape.
“For some, [Trump’s] hard-nosed style is seen as strength; for others it raises deeper concerns about America’s global standing and reliability. If this unease deepens, it could undermine support for the GOP among independents.
“Perhaps the most significant shift in the past two weeks is the rise of ‘major concerns’ (10 percent)—a catchall category reflecting increased anxiety about where Trump’s leadership is headed. This is not tied to a single issue but rather a growing fear about his long-term direction.”
For a copy of ImpactSocial‘s full report please click here.
What People Are Saying
Donald Trump on March 26 on Truth Social: “Egg prices have definitely turned a corner…with large egg prices, on average, down 59% since February 28th.”
What Happens Next
Trump’s approval among not just swing state voters but all voters will likely be impacted by continued global relations and military outcomes, and whether economic pains will be quelled in a period of stock market volatility and tariffs against allies.
The post Donald Trump’s Losing Control of the Narrative With Swing Voters: Data appeared first on Newsweek.
