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Nothing is ever certain in American politics, but the tidal charts of federal elections have proven pretty reliable over the years. “The people” have established firm patterns, but they also allow for upsets.
According to those tidal charts, the GOP should get “thumped” in the November 2026 congressional “off-year” elections, especially as it is the first vote since the incumbent president won (“Thumped” is a highly technical term of art used by President George W. Bush to describe the results after his party took it on the chin in the electoral counts of 2006.)
There are, however, “outlier” years that are the exceptions that prove the above rule. In the 2002 “out year,” for example, the GOP was supposed to lose because “W” had won two years earlier, but the Republicans picked up eight seats in the House and two in the Senate. That was, of course, the election that followed 9/11 by 14 months and the variation from the pattern was attributed to that.
But I’m not. Too many strange things have happened over the years to rely on the words “It will probably pass.” My mantra is “Remember Jim Jeffords” —the GOP senator who bolted the party in the spring of 2001 and took the GOP’s majority with him. “Speed” doesn’t kill on the Hill. It thrills.
And please don’t tell us that it is complicated. Of course it is, because trade-offs must be made. It’s not “hard” in the way, say, farming is hard. Decaying legislative compromises does not require sweat. It requires attention span. The Congressional GOP needs to focus and execute.
That sort of wave off citing complexity, in fact, angers Republican activists who worked and worked and worked to win unified government only to see that unified government —a fact since November— dawdle. Delay is also not going to cut it for owners of businesses who have to consider whether or not to expand their operations. There are a million decisions waiting on the tax bill. So why are we waiting? Do we not want the economy to take off?
I don’t know why these delays have mounted, and I’m sure many folks have great rationales for the meandering path. But if President Trump wants a shot at getting stuff done not just this year and next, but in 2027 and 2028 after actually winning in the fall of 2026, it’s time for him to call a meeting in the Roosevelt Room and get everyone on the same page and marching to the same beat —preferably a quick one.
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