When a relationship ends, it often feels sudden—but new research suggests the cracks start forming years before the final split.
According to a new study by psychology professors Janina Bühler from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz and Ulrich Orth from the University of Bern, most relationships go through a predictable decline in satisfaction long before they reach a breaking point.
The researchers found that relationship satisfaction typically begins to decline gradually over several years, hitting a critical “transition point” about one to two years before the relationship ends. From this point onward, satisfaction deteriorates quickly.
“Couples in question then move towards separation,” Bühler said in a statement.
The two phases of relationship decline
The researchers analyzed data from 11,295 individuals across four national studies conducted in Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands—all “WEIRD,” or, “Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic” nations, where individuals are free to choose their relationship status.
The studies tracked relationship satisfaction over periods ranging from 12–21 years.
Rather than looking at satisfaction over the course of a relationship, Bühler and Orth examined how satisfaction evolved in the time leading up to a breakup. Their analysis identified two phases of decline:
- The “preterminal phase”: This early phase can last for several years and is marked by a slow and gradual decline in satisfaction.
- The “terminal phase”: After hitting the “transition point,” satisfaction drops sharply, lasting between seven and 28 months.
“Once this terminal phase is reached, the relationship is doomed to come to an end,” Bühler said. “This is apparent from the fact that only the individuals in the separation group go through this terminal phase, not the control group.”
Interestingly, the study also revealed that partners don’t typically experience these phases at the same time. The person who initiates the breakup often becomes dissatisfied much earlier, feeling the decline over a longer period. Meanwhile, the other partner may only notice the deterioration right before the breakup happens.
“Partners pass through various phases,” Bühler explained. “They do not normally separate from one day to the next, and the way these phases impact on the two partners differs.” This delayed awareness may explain why some breakups seem to come “out of nowhere” for one partner.
Can breakups be prevented?
The study’s findings suggest that timing is crucial when it comes to relationship interventions. According to Bühler, many couples pursue help too late—often after the transition point when satisfaction is already plummeting.
“It is thus important to be aware of these relationship patterns. Initiating measures in the preterminal phase of a relationship, i.e., before it begins to go rapidly downhill, may thus be more effective and even contribute to preserving the relationship,” Bühler said.
For couples hoping to avoid an inevitable split, recognizing these early signs could be key to repairing the relationship before it’s too late.
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Reference
Bühler, J. L., & Orth, U. (2025). Terminal decline of satisfaction in romantic relationships: Evidence from four longitudinal studies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000551
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