three main centrist parties presented the results of their first round of on Monday following the in February.
The winner of those elections, the conservative bloc made up of the and , has been in talks to form a coalition government with the center-left .
While the parties were able to come to an agreement to in pre-negotiation talks, there appear to be considerable sticking points between the conservatives and the SPD, especially when it comes to migration.
What’s the outlook for German coalition negotiations?
CDU leader and likely next chancellor has said he wants to have negotiation talks concluded by Easter which falls on April 20 this year.
The main reason for this push to get a functioning government up and running is the uncertainty caused by the new Trump administration in the US and concerns over how that may affect Germany and its already recession-hit economy.
But it remains to be seen that is satisfying (enough) for all involved within this timeline.
Merz is under pressure to provide something to his conservative base, especially since he has come under criticism for helping and pave the way for a massive increase in government spending after campaigning against such a move.
He has also refused to form a coalition with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) who have campaigned heavily against migration and would likely seek to appeal to CDU voters if Merz cannot deliver on his campaign promises to bring about a turning point in Germany’s migration policies.
However, since Merz has also ruled out ruling as a minority government, the SPD is the only party he can form a coalition with, giving the center-left the upper hand in negotiations.
Everyone warning SPD not to block asylum reform
Speaking of the talks and one of their main sticking points, CSU leader and Bavaria’s State Premier addressed the issue of migration: “Limiting migration was one of the Union’s main campaign promises. There will be a fundamental change of course: illegal migration must be limited.”
Söder’s sentiment was seconded by Hesse’s state premier, Boris Rhein, who said, “Political change means we also have to get illegal migration down to zero. Therefore: pushbacks to the borders and end family reunification.”
“The next four years are key,” Rhein told Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper, “The SPD knows that. We have to prove that the political center we can resolve problems.” Rhein also joined those voices in the Union calling on the SPD to not overplay its hand, noting that the Social Democrats only won 16.4% of the vote.
There were warnings from within the SPD, too, with former leader Sigmar Gabriel advising his party to refrain from blocking conservative plans for migration and asylum policy reform.
Gabriel said “it would be a big mistake” to block new policies, adding that the SPD’s “naïve migration policies caused their own voters run to the AfD (Alternative for Germany) in droves.”
CDU boss Merz: ‘trust is growing’
Though much has been reported about conflicts between the CDU/CSU and SPD when it comes to forging a new government, CDU leader Friedrich Merz on Monday said the bigger story is the progress being made.
“The atmosphere continues to improve, trust is growing. We need to be able to trust one another.” Adding that he would not give in to calls for things to move more quickly, Merz said, “I am very confident that we can do this.”
Phase one complete, details next, unclear if government will stand by Easter
As probatory talks wound down on Monday, those involved said there were still issue to resolve, necessitating a second phase aimed at ironing out detail differences.
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann said the next few weeks would be key but echoed the CDU/CSU mantra that simply continuing old policies was not an option, “We’re sticking to that.”
SPD leader Lars Klingbeil said it is “entirely normal” to see some friction between parties but he emphasized progress, saying, “This isn’t about who comes out on top, who collects which trophies. Rather, this is about the responsibility we share for our country.”
In all, 16 working groups participated in the first phase of discussions. From there, party leaders and their teams will now seek to address points upon which consensus remained out of reach.
A new timeframe for round two of talks will be announced by midweek. So far, it appears that the issues most in need of discussion are taxes, welfare policy and illegal migration.
Klingbeil said he couldn’t say whether a new government would be formed by Easter as Merz had originally planned.
Edited by: Jenipher Camino Gonzalez
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