President Donald Trump is the second favorite to win the 2028 presidential election, despite him being constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term, according to a leading bookmaker.
William Hill gives Trump 5/1 odds (16.7 percent) of winning the 2028 presidential contest, behind only Vice President JD Vance. However, one political scientist told Newsweek that the prospect of a constitutional amendment allowing the incumbent to run again is “pure MAGA fantasy.”
Newsweek contacted the White House press office for comment on Saturday via email outside regular office hours.
Why It Matters
In November, Trump secured a second White House term after convincingly defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, receiving 312 electoral votes to the Democrat’s 226 and winning the popular vote for the first time.
Since Trump’s victory—when he became the second president in U.S. history to be elected to a nonconsecutive term—a number of his allies have suggested that he should run again in 2028, including his former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. Trump himself has repeatedly made quips about running for a third term.
What To Know
In odds sent to Newsweek on March 21, William Hill gave Trump a 5/1 chance of winning the 2028 president election, second only to Vance on 5/2 (28.6 percent).
The president and vice president were followed by Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., on 9/1 odds (10 percent). Two Democratic governors—Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gavin Newsom of California—rounded out the top five with 9/1 odds and 10/1 odds (9.1 percent), respectively.
Trump is ineligible to serve a third term as president because of the 22nd Amendment, which—since 1951—has imposed a two-term limit on any person elected to the office of president.
The 22nd Amendment says, “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
Congress can request an amendment to the constitution with a two-thirds majority vote in both chambers. Two-thirds of all state legislatures can also call for an amendment, which would trigger a constitutional convention. To be passed into law, the proposed amendment would then need the support of three-quarters of all U.S. states.
As Republicans have neither a two-thirds majority in either chamber of Congress nor control of two-thirds of state legislatures, it would be impossible for them to pass even the first of these hurdles without Democratic support.
William Hill gave odds of 5/2 on Trump repealing the 22nd Amendment and running for a third term before 2029.
During a speech at the New York Young Republican Club’s annual gala in December, Bannon argued that Trump could run for a third term because the 22nd Amendment applied only to consecutive terms, though this interpretation is not widely held.
What People Are Saying
A William Hill spokesperson told Newsweek: “It’s certainly not going to be plain sailing for Donald Trump if he attempts to repeal the 22nd Amendment in order to run for a third term as president (5/2 to do so before 2029), but given his strength of support in the House and the Senate, he may be tempted to try.
“Trump ally Steve Bannon predicted this week that the POTUS would run for a third term and win, so there’s certainly a feeling that it could be possible, and we’re not taking any chances as we’ve installed him in our next president market at 5/1, behind only favorite JD Vance.”
Thomas Gift, who heads the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek: “Trump may see himself as a king, and many of his closest allies, including Steve Bannon, may be floating the possibility of a 2028 run.
“But that’s just a tactic to strengthen his political capital, flaunt his current power, and keep his grip on the GOP as long as possible. A constitutional amendment to do away with the two-term limit is pure MAGA fantasy—requiring overwhelming congressional and state-level support that simply isn’t in the cards.”
Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert who teaches at the University of Portsmouth in the U.K., told Newsweek: “It would be ironic if Republicans managed to repeal the 22nd Amendment to allow Trump a third term, when it was brought in by Republicans to ensure that Harry Truman was not elected for four terms as his predecessor, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, was.
“The repeal would be exceptionally time-consuming in terms of its progress through Congress and the ratification by the states. [Thirty-eight] states would be needed to ratify the amendment, and currently only 23 are identified as being controlled by Republicans. …
“Of course, if the 22nd Amendment was repealed, that could set up not just a third Trump administration but also a third Obama administration. Republicans should be careful what they wish for.”
What Happens Next
For a realistic chance of repealing the 22nd Amendment, Republicans would need to make major gains at the 2026 midterm elections or persuade a substantial number of Democrats to support the constitutional change.
The post Donald Trump Among 2028 Presidential Favorites Despite Two-Term Limit appeared first on Newsweek.
