Trans-Atlantic relations as we know them are over. The Trump administration in the United States has made it clear that it prefers striking a deal with Russia or other autocrats over maintaining long-term commitments with its Western partners. These threats have united Europeans, who are ramping up their support for Ukraine, investing heavily in their own defense, and striving to build a stronger and more resilient economy. Meanwhile, U.S. institutions that once supported international cooperation and American soft power are getting dismantled.
These developments amount to a trans-Atlantic divorce—and also an opportunity to shape a new trans-Atlantic future by investing in the human capital that the Trump administration has made newly available. At the same time that Europe is trying to build its military capacity, stand on its own feet in intelligence, and make its data and energy infrastructure more resilient, the United States is bleeding talent across the board. U.S. human capital can help build Europe’s future and lay the foundation for a potential renewed trans-Atlantic partnership sometime in the future.
Trans-Atlantic relations as we know them are over. The Trump administration in the United States has made it clear that it prefers striking a deal with Russia or other autocrats over maintaining long-term commitments with its Western partners. These threats have united Europeans, who are ramping up their support for Ukraine, investing heavily in their own defense, and striving to build a stronger and more resilient economy. Meanwhile, U.S. institutions that once supported international cooperation and American soft power are getting dismantled.
These developments amount to a trans-Atlantic divorce—and also an opportunity to shape a new trans-Atlantic future by investing in the human capital that the Trump administration has made newly available. At the same time that Europe is trying to build its military capacity, stand on its own feet in intelligence, and make its data and energy infrastructure more resilient, the United States is bleeding talent across the board. U.S. human capital can help build Europe’s future and lay the foundation for a potential renewed trans-Atlantic partnership sometime in the future.
The Trump administration has frozen vast federal funds and announced the elimination of as many as 100,000 jobs, including senior military and security personnel. It has also threatened to push aside military officers who support diversity, equity, and inclusion. The treatment of U.S. intelligence agencies has been even harsher. The CIA has offered buyouts to numerous staff members and initiated the termination of an undisclosed number of contracts for junior officials and probationers.
While the exact numbers of those who have retired or resigned from U.S. intelligence agencies and the military are classified, it is evident that this action resembles a purge of thousands of competent employees. This has led to numerous debates within the United States, with the most prominent being about potential threats to U.S. security and the loss of top talent.
While this talent may potentially compromise U.S. security and military capabilities, it could also present unexpected opportunities for the European defense and intelligence sectors. Suddenly, thousands of competent military and security personnel are seeking new employment. While many would likely consider positions within the U.S. private defense and security sectors, the sheer number indicates that some may be interested in pursuing careers in other regions. Given the evident discontent with their dismissal, as well as their disagreement with U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies on basic human and political levels, it is conceivable that some would consider offering their services to another NATO army or agency in another Western country.
The transfer of personnel who have worked on highly sensitive matters or are trained in one military doctrine to another country is not a straightforward process. However, it is not impossible. Such a move would be more than opportunistic; it would also have practical and symbolic political benefits.
While direct transfers of officers between NATO members’ armed forces are rare, mechanisms like exchange programs and NATO assignments exist to promote interoperability. These arrangements, supplemented by targeted training and professional development, ensure that officers can effectively integrate and operate within different national military frameworks.
It is fair to assume that some of the U.S. military personnel who have been laid off, or are now dissatisfied and considering leaving, have participated in such exchange programs in the past, which would make it easy for them to engage again with those NATO member units in Europe. There should no obligation for U.S. military personnel to join regular European units in a standard service contact; they could be hired as advisors instead, which would be politically and administratively more palatable for the hiring militaries.
Clearly, for intelligence professionals, such a transition may be more challenging due to laws over nondisclosure and state secrecy. But by employing some creativity—within schemes championed by philanthropic foundations, for example—it could be possible. One could think of fellowship programs, for example, that would allow senior officials to maintain their income and independence, while providing consultation and support for European public administrations at the same time. Although not directly comparable, consider the effort that George Soros made after the end of the Cold War to sponsor scientists from the former Soviet Union in order to preserve nuclear and scientific expertise from falling into the hands of rogue states.
Such trans-Atlantic connections could also be a significant political statement. By welcoming competent and able U.S. personnel into their own agencies, Europeans would demonstrate that Euro-Atlantic ties extend beyond mere government relations—a message that resonates not only with the Democratic Party but also with the many Americans who disagree with Trump. It would also underscore Europe’s commitment to continue working together for mutual benefit, strengthening the trans-Atlantic relationship and demonstrating solidarity with those Americans who have been recently laid off.
This sort of hiring spree by Europe may not require extensive publicity, but it will certainly diverge from the Trump administration’s narrative and strategic approach. This could potentially cause some diplomatic friction, but it could also be of some broader diplomatic benefit. Europe can demonstrate its ability to act as an unpredictable and potentially influential independent entity, capable of identifying and acting on material opportunities that become available. It’s an ability that demands to be taken seriously.
What is possible in military and intelligence domains is even easier in the broader economy, where Europe can gain valuable insight from public officials who have experience in the oversight of sectors like energy and data, or other domains marked by integrated platforms and collaborative work such as public health and science.
It’s likely that European governments will be slow to provide the necessary support for hiring former U.S. officials, given various legal and bureaucratic obstacles. Legally, it may be much easier for personnel with U.S. security clearances to receive a fellowship or contract from a U.S.-based foundation rather than one from a foreign government. Therefore, philanthropists on both sides of the Atlantic, shocked by the dismantling of the institutions and tools of American soft power and geopolitical leadership, could act before governments step in by providing seed capital. Starting fellowships programs and imagining short-term affiliations or consultancy contracts would allow senior leadership from the United States to be included in Europe’s construction.
In these turbulent times, such links would create an alternative integration of the Western world that is focused on networked human capital. All this would have both short- and long-term positive effects. It would immediately speed up the improvement of European security and intelligence. In the long term, it would safeguard the basis for a future trans-Atlantic alliance through interpersonal connections and a shared culture.
However, it is urgent to think about how trans-Atlantic relations will look after the current divorce. It is not only because the investment in Europe’s defense and intelligence capacities needs to start immediately with full speed, but also because U.S. talent is already on the job market.
Time is of the essence. As with all good ideas, Europeans will not be the only ones pursuing an investment in U.S. human capital to strengthen their own interests. American employers will inevitably be among those competing for this talent. And U.S. intelligence has produced evidence that Russia and China are already scouting disgruntled federal workers. Europeans would be well advised to focus on helping the many competent officials currently in distress, if only for the sake of giving the West a chance to survive its current turmoil.
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