China has continued to accelerate and expand the modernization of its nuclear arsenal but has yet to become a peer of the United States, a U.S. think tank said in a report.
Newsweek has emailed both the Pentagon and the Chinese Defense Ministry for comment.
Why It Matters
The report issued by the Federation of American Scientists on March 12 came after U.S. President Donald Trump last month called for China and Russia to join in talks aimed at reducing their nuclear stockpiles and military budgets.
However, China suggested Trump put “America First” in nuclear reduction as the U.S. boasts a huge nuclear stockpile. Beijing has also claimed that it was forced to acquire nukes in response to nuclear threats, to end nuclear monopoly, and to prevent a nuclear war.
What To Know
China is estimated to possess approximately 600 nuclear warheads, which are ready to be delivered by land-based and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, as well as bombers, the Federation of American Scientists said in the report, “Chinese Nuclear Weapons, 2025.”
This figure is the same as the one provided by the Pentagon in its Chinese military power report last December, which said China will have over 1,000 nukes in operation by 2030.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, most of the Chinese nuclear warheads are in storage, and only 24 of them are deployed. The U.S. had 3,748 nuclear warheads as of 2023, including those that are ready for use and nonoperational, official data shows.
While the Pentagon has said Beijing is advancing its nuclear capability, the Federation of American Scientists said no evidence suggested China’s nuclear expansion will result in parity with America’s nuclear arsenal.
“Even the worst-case 2023 projection of 1,500 warheads by 2035 amounts to less than half the current U.S. nuclear stockpile,” the report noted, adding that China is still working to develop a nuclear triad that consists of submarines, land-based missiles, and bombers.
With regard to China’s no-first-use of nuclear weapons policy, the U.S. think tank said this policy “probably has a high threshold,” as China has significantly modernized its non-nuclear forces, which suggested that the Chinese leadership is interested in “keeping it that way.”
If it comes to a situation in which the stakes would be high, China and the U.S. “appear to reserve the option of using nuclear weapons—including first—if deemed necessary,” the report warned, such as a military clash over Taiwan, which Beijing views as its territory.
The Pentagon’s report mentioned that Beijing probably would consider nuclear first use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan gravely threatened the survival of its communist regime. China has threatened that it reserves all options against the self-governed island.
What People Are Saying
The Federation of American Scientists wrote in its report on Chinese nuclear weapons on March 12: “China is believed to have the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states; it is the only Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons that is significantly increasing its nuclear arsenal.”
Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Chinese Defense Ministry, said at a press conference on February 27: “I want to point out that China commits itself to a policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons, pursues a nuclear strategy of self-defense, and keeps our nuclear strength at the minimum level required for national security.”
What Happens Next
It remains to be seen whether China will resume arms control talks with the U.S. that have been stopped since last summer because of continuing arms sales by Washington to Taiwan.
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