LONDON — Keir Starmer is betting that hefty cuts to Britain’s welfare bill won’t alienate his party — or turn off voters. Now to put that theory to the test.
After weeks of behind-the-scenes wrangling, the U.K.’s center-left government on Tuesday afternoon unveiled a sweeping package of reforms to Britain’s social security system, aimed at saving £5 billion a year by 2030.
Its includes controversial proposals to narrow the criteria for claiming disability support, and cuts to some health-related benefits.
And it comes amid deep concern from some of his own MPs that this is not what Starmer’s Labour was elected to do.
Defending the “biggest changes to the welfare system in a generation,” the prime minister insisted he would not stand by while millions of people become “trapped out of work and abandoned by the system,” while promising to “always protect the most severely disabled people to live with dignity.”
Behind the scenes, Starmer’s ministers have spent weeks making the case for reform, citing figures showing one in 10 people of working age are now claiming sickness or disability benefits in the U.K., and highlighting projections that the welfare bill could hit £70 billion a year by the end of this parliament.
It comes against a gloomy economic backdrop for the U.K., with Chancellor Rachel Reeves set to explain how she will balance the books in a spring economic statement next week.
On Tuesday, Starmer’s lofty promises on welfare made contact with the real world.
Nervous Labour MPs are now mulling whether his reforms — unveiled by Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall — are one difficult decision too far for a party which abhorred steep welfare cuts under the last Conservative government.
Cards on the table
A tightening of health-related benefits is at the heart of the government’s plans, as ministers hope to move more people currently on disability and incapacity benefits into work through a mixture of carrot and stick measures.
Under the proposals, a “work capability assessment” — used to qualify for health and disability top-ups under the Universal Credit system introduced by the Tories — will be scrapped from 2028/29. Instead, officials will base eligibility for these top-ups on the assessment for a separate disability benefit, Personal Independence Payment (PIP).
The value of these health and disability top-ups will be frozen until the end of the decade, and halved for new claimants after April next year. Ministers will also consult on plans to block under-22s from getting these top-ups entirely.
In return, ministers say the Universal Credit standard allowance that goes to all claimants will rise above inflation — from £91 per week in 2024/25 to £98 per week in 2026/27.
Yet at the same time it will become harder to qualify for PIP, even if a strongly-rumored blanket freeze to the value of that benefit did not make it into the final plans.
Crucially for worried Labour MPs, some Brits will lose out doubly. They will no longer qualify for PIP under the higher threshold — and therefore will not get top-ups in Universal Credit either.
An impact assessment may reveal how many people fall into this category — but it’s not expected until next week, making it hard for Starmer’s MPs to judge the expected toll of the changes.
Nerves calmed — for now
Confirmation that a previously rumored freeze to daily living payments would not be part of the plan softened the immediate reaction to Tuesday’s announcement.
A pre-statement prediction by one MP that colleagues would “lose their heads” over the plans was tempered by Tuesday afternoon when the same MP said they thought “Liz has done well.”
“People came out of the chamber happier than they were going in,” they said.
Stephen Timms, a veteran Labour MP and scrutineer of the welfare system who is now a minister, notably sat on the front bench during Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall’s statement. He has played a key role in liaising with MPs, and his support for the plans has been seen as critical by some skeptical lawmakers. “I trust him with this,” a second MP said.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, a standard-bearer of the Labour left at the top of Cabinet, also flanked Kendall during the statement.
No. 10 Downing Street was still hosting MPs for round tables about the reforms as late as 4 p.m. on Monday — while Kendall personally rang anxious MPs over the weekend.
“It’s a sensible package, it gets the balance right,” a third MP, on the Starmerite wing of the party, said.
“I would have thought that the vast majority of colleagues feeling wobbly won’t rebel,” they said.
Labour MP David Pinto-Duschinsky, a cheerleader for reform who has spearheaded the Get Britain Working Group, said: “Today’s measures ensure protection for those who need it and support for those who are able to start, stay and succeed in work.”
Sounding off
Others are less assured.
The first MP quoted above warned that “the next 24-48 hours will be critical” as more detail emerges, charities start lobbying, and campaign groups mobilize.
There was predictable anger from the left of the party on display in the House of Commons, too.
MP Clive Lewis warned Kendall that his constituents, friends and family were “very angry” about the changes to come — and warned this is not the kind of action a Labour government should be taking.
Scottish Labour MP Brian Leishman said: “Reducing welfare by £5 billion is the wrong moral decision. This is not what the Labour Party should ever do.”
More worrying for Starmer was the intervention from Debbie Abrahams, chair of parliament’s work and pensions committee, who told MPs there were “alternative, more compassionate, ways to balance the books, rather than off the back of sick and disabled people.” Getting an influential select committee chair on side would be vital to the success of any challenge to the plans to come, a fourth, rebellious MP noted.
Long way to run
Even Starmer’s allies acknowledge there is now danger ahead for the prime minister.
Welfare ministers Kendall, Timms and Alison McGovern were all holding formal briefings with MPs, starting Tuesday night and continuing Wednesday, in what one MP described as a “charm offensive.”
It is “definitely” the most difficult test of loyalty since the election, a Labour official said, predicting there would be a “holding pattern” for the next few days while MPs digest the details.
“We’re still very much in the foothills of judging where parliamentary opinion is on it,” they added.
There is a storied history of British welfare reforms that have been given the hard sell by the government then coming unstuck in the days and months that follow, as MPs study the detail and face local voters. Many of the changes, too, will take time to bed in.
“The devil is in the detail of these proposals, and I do fear what we will find as we turn over rocks over the next few days,” said Liberal Democrat MP Steve Darling Tuesday night.
Esther Webber and Stefan Boscia contributed to this report.
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