TEREHOVA, Latvia — Behind the barbed wire fence, over the top of the snow-capped trees, a Russian flag flutters in the wind above what was once a busy crossing point.
“This is the last stop on the road to Moscow,” said Raimonds Zukuls, head of Latvia’s customs service, pointing toward the demarcation line. “Before the war, 300 trucks a day used to come through here, taking goods over. Now, because of sanctions, it’s maybe half that.”
Yet that traffic might soon start flowing again through the Terehova checkpoint, the main European Union crossing for cargo heading toward the Russian capital. It just depends on Donald Trump. The United States president is facing a cavalcade of decisions that will inevitably determine the EU’s path on Russian goods and energy.
For years, parallel U.S. sanctions and access to American energy have buoyed EU efforts to strangle Moscow’s fossil fuel cash flow. U.S. pressure helped check sanctions evasion. American penalties stranded tankers illicitly selling Russian oil. And U.S. gas provided Europe with a reliable alternative after Russia switched off the taps in a bid to weaponize energy flows.
That could all change in the coming months — in any number of ways. In a classic knot of contradictions, the current administration has both threatened to bury Russia in more sanctions while also offering to ease penalties in talks over the war in Ukraine. That easing, U.S. officials indicated, would eventually touch on the EU’s penalties.
Trump also says he wants to sell Europe more gas — a step the EU says would help it fully quit Russian energy — but those talks are moving slowly.
The situation has left Europe, yet again, at Trump’s whim.
“U.S. support is vitally important because American sanctions are the most powerful,” said Maria Shagina, a sanctions expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Without leadership from Washington, it puts Europe in a tough spot — there is now a high concern that the U.S. sanctions will be lifted and European ones won’t be ramped up.”
That reality has prompted Latvia — a Russia hawk with fresh memories of Soviet oppression — to make its case directly, and repeatedly, to Trump’s team. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže has made several recent visits to Washington, where she stressed that the U.S. and EU must work together on Russia.
“The United States is a strategic partner and ally of Latvia and the entire EU,” Braže said in an interview, emphasizing the need to be partners in the face of conflict rather than rivals.
Shifting positions
Trump is already showing his power over EU sanctions.
In January, Hungary threatened to veto the regular renewal of the EU’s Russia penalties, citing Trump’s return to the White House. But Trump then unexpectedly threatened to thump Moscow with more restrictions. And U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, urging him not to derail the bloc’s sanctions framework, according to two senior officials granted anonymity by POLITICO to speak freely.
Diplomats said the messaging helped convince Budapest to back down, ensuring Russian assets remained frozen and trade embargoes stayed put. The Hungarian foreign ministry did not reply to a request for comment.
That incident raised hopes among the EU’s Russia hawks that Trump might actually help their case.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said he is “pretty convinced that we have an opportunity to put much heavier sanctions because it’s obvious that the U.S. is going to do that as well if Putin is not going to change the goal.”
Yet Trump could change tack at any moment, offering to relax sanctions in his bilateral talks with Russia. If that happens, the EU will lose a critical lever in its efforts to rein in the Hungarians. Given the bloc requires unanimity to impose or renew sanctions, that could become a problem.
“Theoretically, they could do more, but I’m yet to see agreement across the EU,” said Shagina, the sanctions specialist.
Low energy
Trump holds a similar sway over the EU’s Russian energy policy.
Before Trump even entered office, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the EU’s top executive, proposed buying more American liquefied natural gas to replace the bloc’s rising Russian gas purchases.
“Why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices?” she asked in November.
But now the EU push to strike that LNG deal with Trump is holding up further EU energy sanctions, as well as fresh plans to fully quit Russian fuel.
When the EU adopted its February wartime sanctions on Russia, officials omitted a Russian LNG ban, despite mounting pressure from capitals. The reason was the ongoing Trump talks: The EU didn’t want to propose a formal ban on Moscow’s fuel until it had a gas deal with D.C.
Also paused is a long-awaited “roadmap” to ending Russian energy dependence — which officials say will focus on Moscow’s gas exports, as well as oil and nuclear technology. Again, the unresolved energy talks with the U.S. are partly to blame.
“We are still moving forward with the roadmap, it is being prepared, but the timing has changed in light of the latest geopolitical developments,” one senior Commission official told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.
Trump’s decisions on both the LNG talks and Russian sanctions will help chart the EU’s own energy course.
If the U.S. leader goes all in on an LNG deal, it would help unfreeze the EU’s Russian roadmap and may even restart the debate on phasing out Russian LNG. But if the talks lead to nothing — and there appears to have been little progress thus far — it’ll make life much harder for Brussels and EU countries fighting on alone.
Latvia hasn’t bought Russian gas since the start of 2024 but still sees value in tighter U.S. energy bonds. The country is “interested in strengthening energy cooperation with our strategic partner, the U.S., including increasing LNG imports,” said Braže, the Latvian foreign minister.
Trump’s decisions on energy sanctions will be equally impactful.
The outgoing Biden administration imposed heavy penalties on the Russian energy industry, including Russia’s shadow fleet — aging tankers that illicitly sell Moscow’s oil worldwide. Those restrictions have left tankers stranded off the coast of countries like China, with ports afraid of punishment for doing business with them.
Trump may tighten the screws on Russia’s shadow fleet. And Tsahkna, the Estonian foreign minister, argued that such measures could be part of any transatlantic agreement.
Trump could also easily walk away, however. And without American sanctions on those vessels, Europe would struggle to police them alone.
Europe also couldn’t enforce Western allies’ $60-per-barrel limit on Russian oil with U.S. support, especially given that the scheme is already faltering.
“The latest U.S. sanctions package was significant, but it’s not the final blow to the Russian economy,” said Shagina. “Trump is right on one thing: Unless the oil price drops below $40 a barrel, the economy will stay resilient — the problem is I have strong doubts that Trump is interested in seriously pressuring Russia economically.”
No ‘returning to business as usual’
Trump’s ongoing ceasefire talks with Russia will be a determining factor.
Already, some Europeans are eyeing a return to Russian energy if there’s a Trump-brokered peace deal, with countries like Hungary and Slovakia intent on buying Moscow’s pipeline gas instead of slightly more expensive LNG.
With Washington threatening to sideline Europe in the discussions, diplomats from a range of countries are arguing that a strong sanctions policy is the only way to ensure the bloc can get a say in the talks.
“We will be invited when we are told to lift the sanctions. The sanctions are our leverage in itself,” said one EU diplomat who has been involved in the sensitive talks but did not have the authorization to comment publicly.
But there’s no EU consensus on when it might relax sanctions, no matter what Trump offers the Russians. Now, Russia’s neighbors are saying it’s time to lay out red lines.
“Sanctions can only be eased or lifted if Russia is able to make amends and pays for the damage it has caused in Ukraine,” said Latvian special envoy for sanctions, Āris Vīgants.
Even then, Vīgants warned, the EU can’t just revert to a prewar existence.
“Everyone must understand that returning to business as usual with Russia is impossible,” Vīgants said, “even if some kind of peace deal is reached.”
Some European countries are already circling the wagons to try to make sure Russia never again strengthens its hold over the continent.
“Russian energy is poisonous — it comes with political manipulation and blackmail,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO. “The revenues of its sales go directly to funding Russia’s brutalities in Ukraine, but also to various sabotage and disinformation campaigns in our countries.”
“I believe that Europe has learned its lessons and won’t walk back into the trap of reliance on Russian energy resources.”
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