No matter how UCLA was seeded, where it was sent or who it would face in its NCAA tournament opener, perhaps the biggest factor in its postseason fate wouldn’t change.
The Bruins will likely go only as far as their guards take them.
That might make for a short stay in Lexington, Ky., unless they get a lot more out of this group.
March is all about guard play. They are the ones who run the offense, dictate the defense, manage late leads and spark comebacks.
Collectively, Dylan Andrews, Skyy Clark, Kobe Johnson, Sebastian Mack, Trent Perry and Lazar Stefanovic must significantly raise their level of play if the Bruins have any hope of making it to the tournament’s second weekend.
Their production could compensate for an off night by one of the team’s leading scorers, forwards Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr., or offset limited minutes for center Aday Mara because of conditioning issues, matchup concerns or coach Mick Cronin’s reluctance to play him alongside Bilodeau and Dailey.
“When we get good guard play, we can beat anybody,” Cronin said last week after his guards played one of their most complete games in leading the Bruins to a 27-point rout of USC.
UCLA’s guards will get another chance Thursday in a first-round game against 10th-seeded Utah State (26-7) after the 7th-seeded Bruins (22-10) were placed in the Midwest region on Sunday. Should UCLA prevail in its opener, it would face either second-seeded Tennessee (27-7) or 15th-seeded Wofford (19-15) in the second round on Saturday.
It’s no secret that better guard play starts with Andrews, who hasn’t recaptured his strong play from the second half of last season. The Bruins don’t need the junior point guard to perform at an all-conference level to win a couple of games in the NCAA tournament; simply initiating the offense at a high level, making a few shots and continuing to play his strong brand of defense would be enough.
Andrews’ seasonlong shooting slump continued during the Big Ten tournament quarterfinal blowout loss to Wisconsin, when he made two of eight shots to go with only two assists. He’s making 38.2% of his shots, 32.3% of his three-pointers and 66.7% of his free throws, well below his preseason goals of 50-40-90 in those categories.
Part of the problem is inconsistency in Andrews’ mechanics, his release point varying from one shot to the next. Another issue is the reluctance to use his speed — perhaps his greatest asset — to drive toward the basket. This is evidenced in his 21 free throws taken this season, which ranks 10th on the team. He’s also struggled to get the 7-foot-3 Mara the ball in the post, though that has been a teamwide issue.
In a more positive development, Clark has emerged as perhaps the most steady guard on the team. He’s a savvy ballhandler who has also become a top shooter. Over his last 16 games, Clark has made 41.5% of his three-pointers, leading some to believe that he needs to shoot more than his average of 3.3 attempts from long range per game on the season.
“He’s really, really improved at taking care of the ball and I’m trying to keep his mind on being aggressive with his shooting because we do drills and stuff for numbers at full speed and he’s an elite shooter — and I’m not talking about a couple of drills, I’m talking about five months of this, OK?” Cronin said. “So you’re talking about a sample size of over 100 times going through a timed shooting drill and you can’t get the numbers he gets without really being able to shoot, so trying to keep him” shooting.
Johnson largely has been the defensive stopper the Bruins envisioned on the perimeter this season, even if pockets of foul trouble have kept him off the court at times. He’s made a team-leading 53 steals while also averaging a team-best 5.9 rebounds to go with an ability to sink timely three-pointers.
But he can sometimes drift defensively and disappear on offense — he averaged just 3.8 points over the four games preceding his 14-point breakthrough against Wisconsin on Friday.
Mack’s attacking style has its fans and detractors. On the one hand, he’s won a few games with relentless drives and is fearless in his efforts to put points on the board. On the other, he’s repeatedly barreled into opponents for charging calls in critical situations and could probably pass more than he does whenever the ball’s in his hands.
Perry has shown some promise in spot minutes over the last month or so, the freshman looking far less timid than he did earlier in the season. But he’s struggled to shoot — making 36.6% of his shots and 32.4% of his three-pointers — and has been repeatedly beaten on defense.
That leaves the steady Stefanovic, who willingly ceded his starting spot to Johnson once the latter player announced he was transferring from USC. Stefanovic has made the most of his 16.5 minutes per game, averaging 4.7 points and continuing to be practically unguardable curling around screens for jump shots off inbounds passes.
If the Bruins have a late lead and need to put the ball in someone’s hands to ensure they can make their free throws and avert another collapse similar to their losses to North Carolina and Minnesota, Stefanovic is their guy. He’s made 21 of 22 free throws (95.5%).
That’s the sort of consistency the Bruins will need from their guards the rest of this month.
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