U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there are “no guarantees” when asked during a Sunday interview whether he could “guarantee” the American public that the country will not see a recession during President Donald Trump‘s term.
Newsweek reached out to the Treasury Department’s press office for comment on Sunday.
Why It Matters
Concerns from economists about a potential recession have increased in recent weeks amid market turmoil resulting from tariffs implemented, and in some cases rolled back or removed, by the Trump administration. Trump has also repeatedly threatened additional tariffs.
The S&P 500 has dropped 10 percent from its all-time high in February, with the February jobs report showing a slight uptick in the unemployment rate as hiring slowed down.
The most recent U.S. recession was in 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
What to Know
Bessent, who took over leadership of the Treasury at the end of January after his nomination by Trump, appeared for an interview with NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday. The show’s host, Kristen Welker, pressed him on recession concerns.
“Can you guarantee the American people, here and now, that there will be no recession on President Trump’s watch?” Welker asked.
Bessent responded: “You know there are no guarantees. Who would have predicted COVID? So, I can predict that we are putting in robust policies that will be durable and, could there be an adjustment.”
He added: “Because I tell you this massive government spending that we’ve had—if that had kept going, we have to wean our country off of that and on the other side we are going to invigorate the private sector.”
Touting a recent meeting with bankers, Bessent said, “They are ready start lending,” adding, “Main Street is going to do well.”
Bessent’s comments echo a response Trump gave to a similar question from Fox News host Maria Bartiromo in an interview aired last Sunday. When asked about the possibility of a recession, Trump declined to explicitly rule one out.
“I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing… it takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
In a Thursday interview on Fox News’ The Ingraham Angle, host Laura Ingraham asked Vice President JD Vance if he can “rule out a recession, even a temporary one.”
Vance responded: “Well, look, you can never predict the future.” He added that he believes “the economy, the fundamentals of the economy, are actually quite strong right now, and we’ll see how this unfolds.”
However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Meet the Press last Sunday that Americans should “absolutely not” brace for a recession. Nonetheless, the stock market plunged last Monday in a reaction apparently tied to concerns surrounding Trump’s comments.
What People Are Saying
Torsten Sløk, Apollo chief economist, in an analysis of recent survey data last week: “Consumer sentiment is declining rapidly both for households making more than $100,000 and less than $100,000… Consumer worries about losing their jobs are at levels normally seen during recessions.”
Senator Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican, to Fox News Sunday this weekend: “These [economic] experts are funded by lobbyists who have an agenda. Look, it’s very simple, I talk to car company CEOs from all over the world, every single solitary week, and the consistent message is, we’re going to build more in America.”
Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang wrote on X, formerly Twitter, recently: “Do I think Trump is leading us into a recession through his tariffs, posturing and erratic leadership? Yes. Yes I do.”
Robert Reich, an economist and former Labor secretary, on X Friday: “The economy is showing severe warning signs after Trump’s first month in office. This shouldn’t be surprising. He doesn’t understand the economy and tanked pretty much every business he ever touched.”
What Happens Next?
It remains to be seen how Trump’s policies will impact the stock market and the economy more broadly. The administration has increasingly signaled that the public should expect some economic disruptions in the near-term.
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