Germany has left waiting for some time now. On several occasions, the French president proposed talks with Germany on nuclear deterrence in Europe with the help France’s nuclear weapons. Until recently, he has been rebuffed.
That is now changing. The leader of the conservative , , likely to be the next German chancellor, is ready for dialog. With in the White House threatening to withhold US military defense for its European allies, the situation has changed dramatically.
US missiles in Germany
Germany has lived under the US nuclear shield for decades. Up to 20 US nuclear weapons are stationed at a Bundeswehr airbase in Büchel in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate. Only the US president has the code to release them.
However, the supplies the fighter planes that would fly them to their targets in an emergency. “Nuclear sharing” is what calls this jointly organized nuclear deterrence with US weapons, and which also extends to other European countries.
Mood in Germany is shifting
The “Two Plus Four Treaty” signed in 1990 after German reunification stipulated that Germany was not allowed to have its own nuclear weapons.
Two surveys, conducted in early March by pollsters Forsa and Civey, showed 31% and 38% of Germans were in favor of Germany arming itself with nuclear weapons. That’s still a minority, but has grown by several percentage points compared to a year ago.
But such shifts in public opinion are unlikely to have an impact on policy, but it is unclear whether Germany currently has the ability to build its own nuclear weapons anyway.
In an article in early March, the Wall Street Journal pointed to the country’s small supply of weapons-grade uranium for a civilian research reactor operated by the Technical University of Munich. The paper concluded that although Germany may have the scientific and industrial basis required to develop weapons, it would still need outside help, which it could not ask for or receive as long as it was a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
Germany’s prospective new chancellor has rejected such speculation. Germany “cannot and must not have its own nuclear weapons,” Merz told news agency dpa on March 9. Germany has “expressly renounced the possession of nuclear weapons, and that will remain the case,” Merz added.
Merz wants to discuss nuclear deterrence in Europe with France and the UK, both armed with nuclear weapons. In Paris, that door was already wide open.
France and the UK
In Europe, only the UK and France have their own nuclear weapons; within the European Union, only France has them. Closer cooperation would therefore make sense. But there are some problems. The British nuclear forces are closely interconnected with the US and would be available to NATO in the event of a conflict. The situation is different in France, which attaches great importance to maintaining the independence of its nuclear forces. These are not subordinate to NATO’s joint command structures.
Security experts do not expect the US to withdraw its nuclear weapons from Europe in the near future. “I don’t think this is something that is imminent, because NATO and nuclear sharing are of great strategic importance to the US for a variety of reasons,” said Sascha Hach, an expert on European security and arms control at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF). “But it cannot be ruled out.” One of the strategic advantages for the US is the ability to respond to Russian aggression in Europe.
But even if US nukes remain in Europe for the time being, the seeds of doubt that Trump is sowing are already damaging the credibility of US nuclear deterrence. Germany, which has always relied heavily on the US, wants to realign its security policy. The Bundeswehr is to be rearmed faster than planned.
There are also debates about the effectiveness of nuclear shields. Would it even provide sufficient deterrence against Russia’s large nuclear arsenal of more than 5,500 warheads?
Naval and airborne nuclear forces
France has 290 nuclear warheads that can be fired from either nuclear submarines or Rafale fighter jets. According to France, its nuclear forces, also known as the “Force de frappe” also strengthen security for Europe by deterring potential adversaries.
So what exactly would cooperation look like? Information on the handling and strategic planning of nuclear weapons is highly sensitive. France has decades of experience in this area, which Germany of course does not.
Joint exercises between the German and French air forces are conceivable, says French security expert Camille Grand from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). This could also see French Rafale jets landing in Germany. However, the stationing of French nuclear fighter jets or other nuclear infrastructure in Germany, which some media have speculated about, is not planned.
“It is a mistake to assume that French nuclear guarantees would be similar to American nuclear guarantees,” emphasized Camille Grand in an interview with DW.
The French government has always made it clear that it will not relinquish control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.
UK weapons
Not only the French, but also British nuclear forces are geared strongly towards national defense. The United Kingdom is the only nuclear-armed state with only one type of nuclear weapon. The country’s nuclear deterrent is entirely sea-based. It is made up of four nuclear submarines stationed on the west coast of Scotland.
What is conceivable is a stronger strategic partnership or a “political declaration that the French and British nuclear arsenal would also be used to defend European territory in an emergency,” security expert Sascha Hach told DW. “But I think it’s unrealistic to expect the nuclear forces in France and the UK to develop in such a way that they would be tailored to European defense.”
The number of nuclear bombs is not the decisive factor, according to Hach. He warned that other important defense measures might also disappear without the US, such as direct military relations with the other side. “I would say that it is in Europe’s interest to set up similar structures and mechanisms that will give us control.”
This article was originally written in German.
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