The current month of Ramadan marks almost two years of fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and their respective allies.
During Ramadan in April 2023, the commanders of the two forces over how to integrate the RSF into the SAF.
The ensuing over who should control the country has plunged Sudan into the world’s biggest humanitarian and displacement crisis.
Now, in addition to the dire humanitarian situation, hunger and famine, and outbreaks of cholera, the war-battered country risks being split into two rival administrations.
‘Grave concerns’
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces — which hold nearly all of Sudan’s western Darfur region and parts of the south — recently signed a charter to establish a “Government of Peace and Unity” in areas under their control.
The United Nations Security Council has warned that “such a move would risk exacerbating the in Sudan, fragmenting the country, and worsening an already dire humanitarian situation.”
This week, the African Union, a continental body that comprises 55 African countries, also condemned “the announcement by the Rapid Support Forces and its affiliated political and social forces of the establishment of a parallel government in the Republic of Sudan, and warned that such action carries a huge risk of partitioning of the country.”
The Sudanese Armed Forces, which control most of the country’s north and east, and large swathes of the capital Khartoum and central Sudan, also unveiled a political roadmap “for peace” in February.
“Each side hopes to position themselves [sic] as the ‘legitimate power’ in the country,” Leena Badri, from the International Security Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, told DW.
“The SAF stated that any end to fighting will only happen once the paramilitary militia withdraws and gathers for disarmament while the RSF hopes to gain access to more formal weapons import through establishing a government,” she added.
“However, a real willingness to on the ground has not been expressed.”
Partition exacerbates the humanitarian situation
Analysts and human rights activists are increasingly concerned about the ripple effects of a potential partition.
“Parallel administrations would draw Sudanese civilians even further away from the goals of peace, justice, and freedom and would cement the control of military men over Sudan’s political future,” Shayna Lewis, a Sudan specialist and senior advisor at the US-based non-governmental group Preventing and Ending Mass Atrocities (PAEMA), told DW.
“We have already been seeing an for humanitarian aid by the RSF and the SAF, with blockages and restrictions on unfettered humanitarian access remaining in place,” Mohamed Osman, a Sudan researcher at the US-based NGO Human Rights Watch, confirmed.
“The RSF-proposed government is not something we can expect to help or advance human rights or improve the , given their own record throughout the war,” he told DW.
For the 12.9 million Sudanese people forced to flee their homes, of which close to 9 million are internally displaced, the already dire situation .
The UN warned this week that in Sudan’s western Darfur region, civilians in refugee camps were dying of hunger.
Salah Adam, who is living in the Abu Shouk refugee camp in Darfur, said on Friday that “conditions are .”
“We have very little food left, and there is a water shortage,” he told DW.
He said that there was no more medical care and that shelling by the RSF continued.
“We are so worried about our lives and the situation in but we have no power to change anything.”
International influence
Observers have repeatedly pointed out that the outcome of the conflict in Sudan depends largely on the respective international allies of the warring sides.
The Sudanese Armed Forces under General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan rely on political backing and military support from and .
The Sudanese government accuses the Rapid Support Forces, which are headed by General Mohammed Dagalo, of receiving arms deliveries from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) via neighboring Chad.
The UAE, however, denies the allegations even though human rights organizations have found evidence of UAE-produced arms being used in the conflict.
Earlier this month, filed a caseagainst the at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.
“The United Arab Emirates fuels the rebellion and supports the militia that has committed the crime of in West Darfur,” the official submission to the court stated.
A UAE official told the French news agency AFP that the case was “nothing more than a cynical publicity stunt aimed at diverting attention.”
The UN estimates that there have been at least 40,000 deaths in the past two years.
Edited by: Anne Thomas
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