A meeting between representatives of the has sparked hope for a temporary . Here’s an overview of what’s at stake.
Russia
To date, the Russian government has shown little interest in .
Yuri Ushakov, an adviser to President , told Russian news agency Interfax on Thursday that the proposal put forward for a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine was “hasty.” Any peace settlement, he said, must “take into consideration [Russia’s] legitimate interests and concerns,” and not simply “give a respite to the Ukrainian military.”
Experts believe Moscow wants to push out of Eastern Europe, and increase Russian influence in Ukraine. “I don’t think it’s realistic that Russia will agree to something where Ukraine remains independent and sovereign,” said Russia expert Janis Kluge from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, referencing Moscow’s repeated demands that Ukraine should hold elections.
This strategy aligns with the conditions Moscow has set for any potential peace negotiations. They include Moscow’s continued insistence that it will not tolerate any foreign peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. It is also not prepared to countenance .
Russia is also very unlikely to return any of the Ukrainian territories it has already annexed. On the contrary: At the end of February, Putin offered US President a separate agreement that would allow the US to exploit resources in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories. Putin declared, in a television interview, that Russia was ready to “cooperate with foreign partners, including the Americans, in the new regions.”
Moscow has a strong interest in persuading the West to it has imposed since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The wartime economy initially triggered a boom in Russia, but this has now ground to a halt.
United States
Trump wants to gain political capital by positioning himself as a broker of peace. Though he wasn’t able to fulfill his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, he has managed to up the pressure on both Kyiv and Moscow.
At the recent meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Charlevoix, Canada, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a “perfect” G7 joint statement after that meeting “would be that the United States has done a good thing for the world in bringing this process forward.”
A peace agreement would also make it easier for Trump to reduce military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. This would align with his plans to reduce US engagement with NATO, and force European countries to increase their defense spending.
The US also has an interest in accessing raw materials. Ukraine has fossil resources, such as gas, and important mineral reserves. A proposed agreement between Ukraine and the US initially failed following the between Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House at the end of February. Zelenskyy has since declared that he is ready to sign the agreement.
Observers are worried that the pressure Trump has placed on himself in promising to end the war quickly could lead him to make significant concessions to Putin.
European Union
The war in Ukraine, and the fear that the conflict might escalate, have prompted EU countries to drastically . , which remained neutral for decades, have now joined NATO.
Since the start of the war in February 2022, most EU member states have joined in imposing the EU’s sanctions on Russia. “We must put Ukraine in the strongest possible position. ,” the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said last month as the 27-nation bloc imposed its 16th round of sanctions.
Brussels also wants to curb Russia’s growing influence in Europe, which is why it has offered Ukraine the . In June 2022, the country became an official EU candidate country.
Countries sympathetic to or cooperating with Moscow include EU member states Hungary and Slovakia, and EU candidate Serbia. In Romania, the far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu was supported by Moscow, but Romania’s constitutional court has since in the election.
Ukraine
Under massive pressure from the US, Zelenskyy has said he is willing to make concessions. Until recently, Kyiv’s official position was that it would “not negotiate with Putin” and intended to “recapture all Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea and eastern Ukraine.”
Now, after the row at the White House, Kyiv considers it a success that the US is again supplying it with military aid and exchanging intelligence information, . There is also the possibility of security guarantees once more forming part of an eventual agreement.
Although the current ceasefire proposal may not immediately include the return of occupied territories, Ukraine still hopes to recapture these areas in the long term. At the same time, Kyiv is relying on international support to strengthen its position and keep up the pressure on Moscow.
This article was originally written in German.
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