Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep. Spring is almost here—we can feel it!
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces make a deal with Syria’s new government, Russian President Vladimir Putin says he’s open to a cease-fire in Ukraine (but there’s a catch), and U.S. President Donald Trump looks to pursue his ambitions in Panama.
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group that controls a significant chunk of northeast Syria, agreed on Monday to merge with the interim government in Damascus and integrate with the new state institutions. The deal, which the United States reportedly encouraged behind the scenes, is a big win for interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa as he works to unite the country and its many factions after years of devastating civil war.
The SDF, a U.S.-backed coalition of militias that’s played a central role in the fight against the Islamic State, is now set to hand over control of various civil and military institutions to the new government—including oil and gas fields and an airport. The deal also means that responsibility for prison and detainee camps packed with thousands of Islamic State fighters will be passed from the SDF to the new Syrian government.
All of this raises important questions about the future not just of Syria and the region, but also of the U.S. counter-Islamic State mission in Syria.
Integration and stabilization. The SDF agreement offers a pathway to political representation for Syrian Kurds, who faced oppression at the hands of the Assad regime. The merger could also potentially help ease tensions between the SDF and Turkey, which regards the Kurdish-led militia alliance as a terror group. Ankara has also backed Syrian rebel groups that have fought with the SDF, including in the wake of the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad.
The Turkish government has so far applauded the deal as a positive step forward. The agreement was announced just weeks after the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group affiliated with the SDF that has fought an insurgency against Turkey for years, called for its members to disband and disarm.
Still, it remains to be seen precisely how the integration process will be carried out, and Syria still faces an array of serious problems in this precarious transitional period. The deal comes on the heels of days of sectarian violence in western Syria that led to hundreds of civilian deaths—clashes that spiraled out of an ambush on government security forces by Assad loyalists. The recent violence is indicative of the vast challenges that al-Sharaa faces in establishing a nationwide cease-fire.
But retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who oversaw U.S. military operations in the Middle East from 2016 to 2019 as the commander of U.S. Central Command, is cautiously optimistic about the recent SDF merger and its potential to help stabilize Syria.
“This is a good move” that helps lay out a political path for the SDF and Kurds more generally, Votel told SitRep, while cautioning that there’s “certainly a lot left to be worked out.”
“What we’ll have to pay attention to is how long it takes to actually implement this,” Votel said.
U.S. military presence. The SDF’s merger with the new government could also have significant implications for U.S. counterterrorism operations in Syria, and it raises questions about the U.S. military’s ongoing presence in the country amid concerns about the potential for a resurgence of the Islamic State.
The Islamic State remains a “very serious threat” in Syria, Votel said, pointing to a spike in attacks by the group in northeast Syria in the last six to nine months. “They are trying to reassert themselves,” Votel warned.
There are roughly 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria to help keep the Islamic State in check. If the SDF merger moves forward successfully, Votel believes that “it will eventually lead to the departure of American forces from Syria.”
“That could have an impact on our CT [counterterrorism] operations in that part of the Levant,” Votel said. “I’m a little bit concerned about that, but I think there’s a lot left to be worked out before we know what direction all this goes.”
Trump, who has expressed a desire to see the U.S. less involved in foreign conflicts (well, sort of), has pushed for a troop withdrawal from Syria. “Syria is its own mess. They got enough messes over there. They don’t need us involved in every one,” Trump said earlier this year.
Votel said that it’s “too early” to make a decision on withdrawing troops and that the United States should be “patient,” but also that the merger represents a good step by the Trump administration “to get the SDF moving forward and provide an opportunity for us to relook at our posturing as well.”
The Defense Department has reportedly drawn up plans for withdrawing troops from Syria, but it does not appear that any firm decisions have been made on a pullout. A Pentagon spokesperson on Thursday told SitRep, “We do not have anything to provide at this time” when questioned about the potential for a withdrawal.
Jailbreak threat. Opponents of a U.S. withdrawal warn that it would increase the risk of the Islamic State regaining a foothold in Syria, particularly given that the SDF has leaned heavily on the United States in terms of maintaining the prisons where Islamic State fighters are held.
A U.S. withdrawal would be a “big mistake,” Colin P. Clarke, the director of research at the Soufan Group and a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, told SitRep, warning that the Islamic State is “likely gearing up” to attempt a jailbreak in the near future.
Clarke said that Trump deserves credit for doing a “good job” against the Islamic State in his first term, during which the group’s so-called caliphate across Iraq and Syria collapsed. Though the SDF deal gives Trump “the top cover he needs to pull troops out of Syria,” Clarke added, the president could potentially be convinced against greenlighting a withdrawal if he’s warned that doing so could lead the Islamic State issue to “flare up” again and risk ruining his legacy.
The latest Trump appointee confirmed by the Senate:
Lori Chavez-DeRemer as labor secretary
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
India butters up Trump’s tech backers. After years of trying to break into the Indian market, Starlink got a big boost this week, FP’s Rishi Iyengar reports. The satellite internet provider, owned by Elon Musk’s company SpaceX, signed deals with India’s top two telecommunications firms to bring its services to their hundreds of millions of customers. Starlink still needs to get regulatory approval from the Indian government, but Musk’s role as Trump-whisperer in chief is expected to help things along.
One company that did get regulatory approval in India is Coinbase, the cryptocurrency exchange whose CEO, Brian Armstrong, has been a vocal supporter of Trump’s policies toward the industry.
That’s all happening as India tries to avoid being hit with Trump’s tariffs, and access to the world’s second-largest internet user base of nearly a billion people is a tempting bargaining chip. You can read more in Rishi’s latest story here.
Can Trump make a deal with Putin? Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled on Thursday that he’s open to the idea of a cease-fire in Ukraine, but he said that “there are issues that need to be discussed” before he can agree to a truce. The Russian leader said that he may need to have “a phone call with Trump” to work out those details.
Putin’s comments came after Ukraine expressed support for a 30-day cease-fire proposal drawn up by U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Riyadh this week. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Thursday as the administration continues its push for a peace deal. Witkoff is expected to meet with Putin during his visit to Russia.
What’s Trump planning in Panama? Trump has reportedly ordered the Pentagon to compile options for increasing the presence of the U.S. military in Panama in furtherance of his goal of “reclaiming” the Panama Canal for the United States. Trump has made unfounded assertions that China controls the canal.
Officials told NBC News that potential plans range from increasing collaboration with Panamanian forces to a less probable scenario in which U.S. troops seize the canal by force.
Trump’s tariffs and talk about making Canada the 51st U.S. state have created historic tensions between Washington and Ottawa. Earlier this week, Foreign Policy sat down with Quebec’s international relations minister, Martine Biron, to discuss the tense state of affairs between the two countries.
“First, regarding the 51st state, it will never, never, never happen. Quebecers and Canadians are proud of their identity, economics, and culture—and it will never happen,” Biron said.
Read the rest of our conversation here.
Monday, Mar. 17: The Raisina Dialogue, a conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics in India, is set to begin.
Thursday, Mar. 20: A European Council leaders’ summit is scheduled to begin in Brussels.
“I appear to live rent-free in the minds of some of my Republican colleagues. I wish that they would spend even a fraction of the time that they spent thinking about me thinking about how to lower the costs for American families.”
—Democratic Rep. Sarah McBride of Delaware, the first transgender person elected to Congress, regarding the heavy focus on her gender among Republican lawmakers. During a congressional hearing this week, GOP Rep. Keith Self of Texas referred to her as “Mr. McBride.”
A man from Pennsylvania attempted to get past security at an airport in New Jersey with a live turtle in his pants. It’s unclear why the animal was concealed there, but it caused a body scanner alarm to go off at Newark Liberty International Airport. A TSA agent then conducted a pat-down and discovered the reptile. The turtle, which was confiscated, has not commented on the matter.
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