Promises made, promises kept.
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One,” Donald Trump said on the campaign trail last summer.
Critics claimed, without evidence, that Trump’s tariff plans would raise inflation. Many economists argued that while the rate of price increases might slow, prices would not decline and Americans would simply have to adjust to the new higher price level.
In February, however, the core producer price index for final demand declined by 0.1 percent. In other words, prices of goods and services— excluding food and energy—sold by U.S. businesses came down.
The broader index for producer prices was flat for the month, indicating that there was no inflation at all in the month.
Both numbers were better than expected. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent increase in the broad producer price index (PPI) and an even larger 0.5 percent increase in core producer prices.Instead of the expected price surge, we got price stability—and even declines in core producer prices.
The producer price index (PPI) is often mistakenly called a measure of wholesale prices, a confusion that goes back to its original name as the wholesale price index. In fact, the index has never been a measure of wholesale prices and the name was changed in 1978.
The PPI for final demand measures the prices that businesses in the U.S. receive for goods, services, and construction sold for personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports. It excludes export prices, since those are paid to foreign producers, and sales taxes, which are paid to the government.
The better-known consumer price index (CPI) tracks the prices U.S. consumers pay, which means it excludes export prices but includes sales taxes. The CPI also excludes prices paid by businesses, nonprofits, and government.
Although the two measures can differ from each other in any particular month, they typically track each other over time. Historically, neither is a leading indicator of the other. In February, both the broad CPI and core consumer prices rose by 0.2 percent.
The year-over-year inflation measures remain elevated, a lingering effect of the high inflation that persisted during Joe Biden’s presidency. The PPI is up 3.2 percent from a year ago and core PPI is up 3.4 percent. The increase in January was revised up to 0.6 percent from 0.4 percent, indicating an inflationary surge occurred at the tail end of Biden’s presidency, likely related to the administration’s efforts to spend appropriated funds quickly in its final months in an effort to pre-empt Trump from canceling payments and cutting budgets.
Many analysts look to a measure often called “super-core” PPI. This excludes food, energy, and a measure of retail and wholesale profit margins known as “trade services.” It rose 0.2 percent for the month and is up 3.3 percent from a year ago.
The PPI for final demand goods rose 0.3 percent in February, half of the rate of increase in January. For the year, goods prices are up 1.7 percent. Most of the inflation over the past year has come in the services side of the economy, where prices are up 3.9 percent from a year ago. In February, however, services prices fell 0.2 percent.
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