, Min Aung Hlaing, visited Moscow for high-level talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week.
It was Min Aung Hlaing’s fourth visit to Russia since he took power in a 2021 coup, but last week’s visit was the first official visit at the invitation of Putin, who hailed his ties with the junta, and lauded a 40% increase in bilateral trade last year.
Both junta and Russia are subject to international sanctions over human rights violations committed during both countries’ respective ongoing wars.
As part of the exchange in Moscow, Myanmar agreed to open two new consulates in St. Petersburg and Novosibirsk. Myanmar and Russia also signed an agreement for the construction of a small-scale nuclear plant in Myanmar.
Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asian politics, called the talks a “diplomatic win” for the junta leader, but downplayed the significance of the nuclear energy agreement.
“There have been four such agreements before, and none have been implemented, not even close. Yes, the junta is facing acute energy shortages, but the regime has neither the security over its territory, the skilled manpower, or finances for even a small modular reactor,” he told DW.
Russia’s support for Myanmar’s junta
Both Min Aung Hlaing and Putin are pariahs in the West. Putin is under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC), while an ICC prosecutor has requested an arrest warrant for General Hlaing.
Both leaders are also embroiled in costly wars. And for Myanmar’s junta, , with ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) of Myanmar, and the junta’s forces thought to control less than half of the country.
Min Aung Hlaing reportedly also asked Putin for assistance with drone technology for his troops.
Russia has long been a major military supplier to the junta, providing helicopters, jets, armored vehicles, and artillery, which rights groups say have also been used against the civilian population.
“It is very disheartening that Russia is supporting this junta to keep killing the people. Russia is not only complicit in the junta’s war crimes and crimes against humanity against Myanmar people, but also supporting to prolong the military tyranny in Myanmar,” Khin Ohmar, a democracy activist in Myanmar, told DW.
Abuza says drone production could provide a boost for Myanmar’s weakened military.
“The most important piece from the visit will be in the licensed production of drones,” he said.
“It took the Tatmadaw [Myanmar’s military] years to catch up to what the rebel groups were doing with drones, but they are now being deployed with effect. The opposition has taken heavy casualties and their offensives have slowed. Licensed drone production is essential for the cash-strapped junta,” Abuza added.
China the friendly neighbor
Myanmar’s military , which has supplied the Tatmadaw with arms for decades.
China is Myanmar’s biggest trade partner and has also invested billions in the country’s infrastructure, including the oil and gas sector. Beijing is keen to protect its interests in neighboring Myanmar as the junta’s hold on power continues to be tenuous.
General Hlaing at the Mekong Summit. Experts say the meeting shows Beijing is still backing the struggling junta, but Beijing knows it holds all the cards in bilateral ties.
Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States Institute of Peace, said Min Aung Hlaing is trying to hedge between Beijing and Moscow.
“Min Aung Hlaing’s weak regime has been trying to avoid being completely captured by Chinese interests, but has largely failed as the vast majority of states are anxious about engaging with an illegitimate, incompetent regime that has lost control of the vast majority of the country’s geo-strategic resources, and which is being dealt new defeats on the battlefield almost daily,” he told DW.
“Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to China last year in many ways paved the way for him to make a higher-level visit to Russia, and it is clear that the military regime is trying to exploit any possible openings to hedge between China and Russia,” he added.
However, he said this strategy is not likely to bear fruit.
“The Myanmar military is heavily dependent on China, given the influence that China has over Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed organizations, including the United Wa State Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, , and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.”
“If China removed the pressure that it is currently placing on these EAOs, and if it once again permitted the flow of cross-border resources to these EAOs, this would dramatically speed up the pace of the defeat of Min Aung Hlaing’s remaining forces,” Tower said.
“There is very little that Russia can or is willing to do to reverse these trends. Russia has not demonstrated any interest in getting involved in the battlefield situation in the China-Myanmar border area, almost certainly because it fears angering China,” he added.
Edited by: Wesley Rahn
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