In the days following their five-game defeat to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 World Series, the New York Yankees faced two serious losses to the roster that got them to their record 41st Fall Classic in the first place.
Just a day after the series ended, generational slugger Juan Soto declared free agency and rather than express any preference to return to the Bronx, said he would make himself “available for all 30 teams.”
As if the prospect of losing their best hitter other than team captain Aaron Judge wasn’t bad enough, the Yankees’ worries grew a few days later when pitching ace Gerrit Cole also declared that he wanted out.
When the 2023 American League Cy Young winner signed his nine-year, $324 million free agent contract with the Yankees in 2020 after two seasons with the Houston Astros, the deal gave Cole the right to unilaterally opt out of the contract after the 2024 season.
In early November, Cole announced he would put that opt-out clause into effect and jump into the free agent market once again.
With Soto, the Yankees did indeed lose him. At age 26, Soto signed a record-shattering 15-year, $765 million contract to move across town to Queens and play out what will likely be the remainder of his career with the New York Mets.
But in Cole’s case, something strange happened. Under the terms of Cole’s contract, the Yankees could have required him to stay by adding one year at a $36 million salary to his deal. But they chose not to, in effect daring Cole to test the free agent market.
Cole responded by simply changing his mind. He did not opt out after all, and would continue with the Yankees under the same contract he signed four years earlier —potentially leaving millions on the table.
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After Cole reported “alarming” elbow discomfort after a spring training start last week, and tests showed that he required Tommy John surgery — which he underwent Tuesday, bringing an abrupt end to his 2025 season — longtime MLB insider journalist Joel Sherman believes he now knows why Cole did the bizarre about-face on his opt-out in November. And he’s not the only one.
“The fact that Cole did not go into free agency also said something,” Sherman wrote in the New York Post on Tuesday. “Yes, he might have preferred not to pull up roots. But he also is a prideful player who was a staunch player advocate in the last collective bargaining agreement negotiations.
“He is not the type you would imagine leaving money on the table, even for the Yankees. Is it possible that Cole knew he also was not a great bet to recoup even the $144 million in the open market once he had to take a physical?” Sherman asked.
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Kelly Franco, host of the “Three Inning Fan” baseball podcast also expressed suspicions that Cole knew his elbow was in danger as early as November.
“When Gerrit Cole opted out last fall and stared down testing free agency, I am wondering if he had a prayer of passing the physical that any team would have required,” Franco speculated on social media. “And if that was why he decided to reunite with the Yankees under the terms of his old contract.”
Fansided Yanks Go Yard writer Thomas Carranante also asked, in a Tuesday blog post, “Did Gerrit Cole’s elbow injury scare him into returning to Yankees contract this offseason?”
“With Cole officially headed for Tommy John surgery (the news became official Monday evening) after more elbow issues surfaced at spring training, it appears this may have been a fear for Cole and (agent Scott) Boras all along,” Carranante wrote. “Was there another team out there willing to commit $150 million or more to a guy who just missed half the season with elbow inflammation?”
If Cole did have fears that his elbow would not hold up, did he share them with the Yankees? Neither the pitcher nor his agent, Boras, have yet commented publicly on that possibility.
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