As robotaxis become a more familiar sight on the streets of Los Angeles, Tesla has taken a step that could bring it closer to building its own fleet of self-driving electric vehicles, the California Public Utilities Commission confirmed last week.
In November, Tesla applied for a permit that would allow the electric vehicle manufacturing giant to deploy transportation services with company-owned vehicles and human drivers. The permit would be required for Tesla to advance to autonomous cabs.
Chief Executive Elon Musk has long made clear his ambitions for a robotaxi service powered by Tesla vehicles, though his company has been criticized by the U.S. government’s highway safety agency for making statements that its vehicles can drive themselves.
To be sure, the automaker is still a long way off before it can launch a service.
And it’s still playing catch-up. While Waymo has already put driverless vehicles on the road in cities including Los Angeles and San Francisco, industry experts say Tesla is still far from offering a robotaxi service.
Here’s what to know:
What’s the permit for?
A transportation charter-party carrier permit, or TCP. Companies that charter buses for sporting events or limousines for special occasions use this permit, according to the CPUC’s website.
If granted, the permit by itself would not allow Tesla to run any autonomous vehicle rides, with or without someone behind the wheel. Rather, the permit is a prerequisite for the commission’s Autonomous Vehicle Passenger Service, which would give Tesla permission to deploy driverless taxis in the state.
Currently, only a handful of companies are permitted to deploy driverless taxis in California — Waymo, WeRide AI and Zoox. Cruise, which was shuttered by General Motors after causing serious injury to a pedestrian, had its permit suspended.
What is Tesla planning?
There’s no direct connection between obtaining a TCP and operating a fleet robotaxis, said Bryant Walker Smith, an associate professor of law at the University of South Carolina who specializes in emerging transportation technology.
But Musk is likely trying to signal a move toward autonomous services, he said.
“One possibility is that it has truly nothing to do with robotaxis, and they really just want to operate a bunch of Tesla party buses,” Bryant said. “I think that’s unlikely.”
Obtaining a TCP could help Tesla lay the groundwork for a future fleet, said Sam Abuelsamid, who researches emerging transportation technology for Telemetry Insights.
“They probably want to do some real-world testing of their their dispatch system, looking down the road at when they hope to maybe launch a robotaxi service,” he said.
Musk said in an earnings call in January that there were huge gains to be made by utilizing autonomous driving, claiming older cars will attract more value overnight with a software update. “Very few people understand the value of full self driving and our ability to monetize the fleet,” he said.
How soon could driverless Tesla taxis hit the road?
The timeline for driverless Tesla cabs in California is unclear. The company must be approved for a TCP permit and also apply and be accepted into the CPUC autonomous vehicle program. The California Department of Motor Vehicles also has required permits for testing and eventually deploying driverless vehicles.
Autonomous Tesla’s could possibly hit the roads sooner in Austin, Texas, where regulations are less strict. Tesla reached out to Austin officials in charge of its autonomous vehicle task force last May, Bloomberg reported.
The regulatory process in California could take up to a year, assuming that Tesla’s technology proves to be safe, Smith said.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment, but Musk said in the January earnings call that Tesla would put Cybertrucks, Model 3s and Model Ys using unsupervised “Full Self-Driving” technology on the road in Texas and California as early as this year. Guests last October took rides on a closed track in Cybercab and Cybervan prototypes, which lack steering wheels, rear view mirrors and gas or brake pedals.
“I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames,” Musk told the crowd in a Tesla keynote speech in Burbank in October. Musk has promised fully autonomous driving in the past, as far back as 2014. He has also over-exaggerated the abilities of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving mode, according to Abuelsamid and other experts.
“I don’t expect robotaxis to happen for Tesla for a long time,” Abuelsamid said. “I don’t think their technology is going to be suitable for that until they make some fundamental changes.”
Is the technology safe?
Tesla’s supervised “Full Self-Driving” mode does not currently function without a human at the wheel, and was being investigated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for safety concerns after multiple crashes, including one that killed a pedestrian.
Tesla tells drivers they must be ready to intervene immediately while using Full-Self Driving mode, and one driver who struck a train while using autopilot admitted that the crash was his fault, NBC reported.
The NHTSA’s autonomous car regulators suffered layoffs after the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency cuts targeted that team, the Washington Post reported.
A study by iSeeCars.com released in November said that Tesla had the highest rate of fatal accidents of all car brands between 2017 and 2022 despite its use of driver assistance technology and high crash safety ratings by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. A Tesla executive called the study “clickbait” in an X post and said the study used an estimated mileage number which wasn’t accurate.
Tesla’s autonomous driving technology differs from Waymo’s in several ways, Abuelsamid said. Waymo vehicles use cameras as well as radar and a type of laser-based radar called lidar to navigate the roads. Musk has repeatedly denounced the use of lidar, but his heavy reliance on cameras has made Full Self-Driving mode less safe, according to Abuelsamid.
Smith also noted factors that differentiate the operational Waymo driverless technology from Tesla’s Full Self-Driving mode. Waymo vehicles use a more advanced map to navigate, he said, and more often rely on a modular learning process that allows them to react to the environment around them.
“Every announcement that Musk makes is aimed at trying to build the narrative around Tesla autonomy,” Abuelsamid said. “When you actually look at the technology, it just doesn’t hold up.”
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