KYIV — The astonishing decision by the U.S. to halt all military aid to Ukraine will harm the country’s effort to hold off Russia but the country will keep fighting, officials said on Tuesday.
“First, it is a suspension that leaves hope for its resumption. So, this is a measure of coercive diplomacy, not a rupture. Second, it is very painful, but not fatal. It will cost Ukraine unnecessary deaths and lost territories, but will not lead to defeat. Third, I am convinced that a solution formula will be found with the new administration,” a senior Ukrainian official told POLITICO on condition of being granted anonymity to be able to speak freely.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Tuesday thanked the U.S. for the aid it has given so far.
“Ukraine is absolutely determined to continue cooperation with the United States of America and I am confident that the support from the United States, as a world leader, one of our largest partners, which has supported us for three years, will continue,” he said.
But that effort at finding some positives doesn’t conceal the sense of betrayal felt in Ukraine as the U.S. shifts from being a crucial ally to a pro-Russia stance as U.S. President Donald Trump tries to rush through a peace agreement.
“It turns out that Trump, having the opportunity to put pressure and influence on Russia and Ukraine, uses this pressure not on the aggressor, but on the victim of aggression,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign relations committee in the Ukrainian parliament. “It looks terrible. Especially when it comes to air defense systems. This stoppage of aid is already a political blow to Ukraine.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come under fierce pressure from the Trump administration following last week’s disastrous meeting in the White House, where he was attacked by Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
Trump’s allies are demanding that Zelenskyy apologize for the meeting while Trump’s right-hand man Elon Musk posted: “As distasteful as it is, Zelensky should be offered some kind of amnesty in a neutral country in exchange for a peaceful transition back to democracy in Ukraine.”
Zelenskyy insists that Ukraine wants peace, but it has to be lasting and just, which is only possible if Kyiv gets security guarantees that would deter Russia’s Vladimir Putin from attacking again.
“I believe that the cessation of American aid will be an aid exclusively to Putin,” Zelenskyy told journalists on Monday, before the White House announced its decision. “I think that the United States, as leaders of the civilized world, will not help Putin. But as president of Ukraine, I work with my team on any challenges precisely so that my army does not have any surprises.”
There is still no executive order on the halt to assistance, but a U.S. official told POLITICO that the White House is, “pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”
Ending U.S. weapons deliveries is a blow to Ukraine, but the country has to ability to keep fighting.
Zelenskyy has previously stated that Ukraine can cover some 40 percent of its military needs, with the U.S. covering 30 percent and Europe another 30 percent.
Those numbers are in line with military analysts.
Malcolm Chalmers with Britain’s Royal United Services Institute said: “Recent estimates suggest that only 20 percent of total military hardware supplied to Ukrainian forces is now from the U.S., 55 percent is home-produced in Ukraine and 25 percent from Europe and the rest of the world, but the 20 percent is the most lethal and important.”
Kyiv can continue fighting
He added that, “Ukraine will not collapse — they already experienced an aid cutoff last year, but the effect will be cumulative.”
Ukraine does have a crucial dependency on U.S. intelligence data and air defense supplies, which will make it difficult to protect the country from Russian missile and drone attacks.
“If the U.S. indeed decides to stop the military aid now, this will mean that civilians and civilian infrastructure will again be under threat,” said Halyna Yanchenko, an MP with the ruling Servant of the People party, adding that it make sense to wait for the official U.S. decision to be made public.
The lack of American aid will be felt primarily on the front lines. Europeans countries are not able to replace the entire line of American weapons, Iryna Gerashchenko, a Ukrainian opposition MP, said in a statement.
A halt in U.S. supplies would be “an extremely serious and palpable blow,” she said.
Ukrainian military intelligence is warning that Russia is preparing one of its biggest drone strikes and could soon mount a 500-strong drone assault, according to Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate.
There was joy in Moscow at the White House decision.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said stopping aid for Ukraine “would likely be the largest contribution to peace.”
This is not the first time that Ukraine has seen American weapons flows stall.
“We had the experience like this when we waited nine months during the war for the U.S. Congress to vote for new aid. It was a tough time for Ukraine but it was not a tragedy,” prominent military volunteer Serhiy Prytula told journalists on Monday, referring to last year’s delay in approving a $61 billion aid package.
But there is no disguising the dismay in Ukraine at Trump’s decision.
“President Trump says he wants peace. Ending military assistance to Ukraine does not achieve peace — it surrenders Ukraine to Russia’s barbaric designs,” Mykola Murskyj, director of advocacy at Razom for Ukraine, an NGO, said in a statement to POLITICO.
“By stopping military aid, President Trump is ensuring that Putin has no real reason to stop his war — if Ukraine is alone, why would he stop fighting? Russia will capitalize on Ukraine’s and America’s weakness to take more land, kill more people, and kidnap thousands more kids.”
Jamie Dettmer contributed to this report.
This article has been updated.
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