Australia’s east coast is bracing for impact as Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which had been expected to remain offshore, now appears set to make landfall later this week. Damaging winds, dangerous surf and widespread flooding are expected for parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales.
The sudden shift in Alfred’s path has caught forecasters by surprise. Initially predicted to continue southward, the storm is now expected to make a sharp turn westward on Tuesday due to a high-pressure system to the south, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. As a result, the cyclone is now on course to strike the densely populated areas between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast on Thursday.
In response, the bureau has issued a tropical cyclone warning from Double Island Point in Queensland to just north of Grafton, New South Wales, an area that includes Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Byron Bayand Ballina.
“We’re expecting gale-fore winds to start to develop from Wednesday evening,” said Sarah Scully, a meteorologist with the Bureau.
The cyclone season for the Australian region runs from November through the end of April. Cyclones can occur anywhere from the western coastline to the more populous eastern coast.
Alfred has already caused dangerous conditions at sea. Last week, Aurimas Mockus, a solo rower nearing the end of a 7,500-mile journey from California, found himself caught in the storm’s powerful winds and rough seas off the Queensland coast.
An emergency beacon alert was received Friday night, about 450 miles east of Mackay. “Conditions in the area were severe due to Tropical Cyclone Alfred,” the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said in a statement. Working alongside the Australian military, helped rescuee him on Monday.
As Alfred nears the coast, forecasters warn that the storm is expected to bring hazardous conditions, with very powerful waves and swell. A coastal hazard warning is in effect from Sandy Cape to Coolangatta for damaging surf and abnormally high tides.
Once Alfred makes landfall, expected on Thursday, its effects are predicted to be widespread.
“The greatest impacts are expected on the southern flank of the cyclone,” Ms. Scully said. Damaging winds could bring down trees, knock out power lines and cause widespread outages.
Heavy rainfall is also expected across southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday onward. Forecasters warned of life-threatening flash flooding, with some areas potentially getting daily rainfall totals between eight to 16 inches. The average monthly rainfall for southeastern Queensland in March is between four to eight inches. Rainfall amounts will depend on Alfred’s path, strength and speed as it nears the coast.
Storm surge is another major concern, with rising waters increasing the risk of coastal inundation in low-lying areas. The meteorology bureau has issued flood watches for these areas because of the potential of minor to major flooding, especially along Queensland’s coastal rivers from Maryborough to the New South Wales border.
Once Alfred makes landfall, it is expected to weaken quickly into a tropical low. However, flooding and heavy rain could persist.
“Rain and flooding impacts are expected to continue throughout Friday and potentially even into the weekend,” Ms. Scully said.
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