A top European official on Tuesday laid out a sweeping framework aimed at rearming the continent, trying to fill a void as President Trump retreated from supporting Ukraine and pressured Europe to spend more on its own defense.
The official, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, the European Union’s executive branch, set out a broad but vague proposal to ramp up European defense spending by as much at 800 billion euros, or some $843 billion, including a €150 billion loan program to pay for more weapons and technology.
The plans signal an important policy shift at a tenuous moment, as European leaders panic about Mr. Trump’s demands.
While the E.U. has long seen itself as a project built for peace and open trade, the world has abruptly changed around it. “We are in an era of rearmament,” Ms. von der Leyen said on Tuesday from Brussels in a statement to the news media.
Mr. Trump has been pivoting away from Ukraine and toward Russia in recent weeks. The shift intensified this week, when he suspended the delivery of all U.S. military aid to Ukraine, according to senior administration officials.
America’s realignment has left Europe racing to help Ukraine in the short term and to ensure that it is prepared to defend itself from a more aggressive Russia in the long term.
The options proposed by Ms. von der Leyen mostly involve loans and looser budget rules. Ultimately, the decisions about whether to boost military spending will be made by E.U. member states, whose finances are already under pressure.
But with Ukraine facing a critical shortfall in weaponry in its war against Russia, the timing is increasingly urgent. Ms. von der Leyen unveiled her proposal ahead of a meeting of heads of state and government from across the block’s 27 member nations in Brussels on Thursday.
A new defense fund
Perhaps the most novel part of the proposal is the €150 billion program to make defense-related loans from the E.U. to member states. The funds could be used to pay for a range of investments: air and missile defense, artillery, drones and anti-drone systems, cybertechnologies and infrastructure projects.
Funding for the program would be raised in capital markets, according to senior European Commission officials. To set it up, the E.U. would rely on an emergency provision that allows for financial assistance to member states in exceptional circumstances. The plan would have to be approved by slightly more than a majority of the European Council — a relatively low barrier.
The loans would be meant to pave the way for big investments that would not overlap. The money would be allocated to member states by the Commission based on demand, officials said.
“It will help member states to pool demand and to buy together,” Ms. von der Leyen said. “With this equipment, member states can massively step up their support to Ukraine.”
Wiggle room for budgets
Ms. von der Leyen had already announced that she would propose exempting defense investments from strict European Union deficit rules.
European defense spending has climbed 30 percent since 2021, but it remains well below the levels that officials say are needed for Europe to become more truly independent from the United States. And budget limitations are already biting.
E.U. countries are supposed to keep their deficits — the gap between how much they spend and how much money they bring in through taxes and fees — to below 3 percent of their economic output, while limiting their debt. Failure to do so can result in fines. Eight countries, including Belgium and Poland, are already bumping up against the limits or are seriously in breach of them, as is France.
Given that, Europe has been trying to find ways to allow individual nations to spend more on defense without making drastic cuts elsewhere, for instance to health care or social services.
Ms. von der Leyen suggested on Tuesday that a budget “escape clause” would be a central part of her plan.
She suggested that if European nations used the space to increase spending by another 1.5 percent of gross domestic product — nearly doubling it from just under 2 percent now — that would add up to about €650 billion over four years.
But even if the European Council approves the escape clause, it’s not clear whether individual states would decide to spend the extra money and increase their deficits.
Redirecting capital
Other programs that the E.U. already has underway could be redirected toward defense, Ms. von der Leyen suggested.
She proposed allowing member states to use what is called “cohesion” funding — which usually helps poorer member states pay for economic development — to pay for military spending.
Another option is to use the European Investment Bank to help to fund the defense buildup. The bank has already been increasing its lending to security-related projects, though it is somewhat limited by its lending criteria.
European officials have called for rule changes that would allow the bank to invest in purely military projects, which it cannot do currently.
What’s not in the proposal
If Ms. von der Leyen’s proposal had an overarching theme, it was that it can be done quickly within the E.U.’s existing framework. But the proposal stopped short of some more ambitious ideas — and lacked a few widely anticipated details.
Defense analysts have been watching to see how the E.U. might work with Britain and Norway, which are not in the bloc. Keir Starmer, the prime minister of Britain, promised this week the formation of a “coalition of the willing” to support Ukraine. But there was nothing in the proposal about a broader collaboration.
Likewise, it is not clear what specific help is coming for Ukraine, versus what will be used to beef up European defense more broadly. E.U. countries have been talking about cobbling together a package for Ukraine financial support that could be worth as much as €20 billion, but Ms. von der Leyen did not talk about those plans on Tuesday.
Given that, the fresh proposal is most likely a starting point. More detail could come on and after Thursday, and even more when the Commission is set to present a paper on defense in March.
“It’s a start, it’s a good signal, but she didn’t go as big as maybe most of us would have expected,” said Maria Martisiute, a policy analyst at the European Policy Center focused on defense. “She’s not revealing all her cards now.”
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