If Europe was already scrambling to backstop Ukraine and bolster its own security before this past week, the Trump administration’s sharp turn away from Kyiv and toward Moscow has sent European leaders into a frenzy of rearmament.
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, sending shockwaves throughout the world. On Monday, Trump suddenly froze all U.S. military assistance for Ukraine and reportedly mooted offering Russia relief from painful economic sanctions—while also starting a trade war with two neighbors, including a NATO ally, as well as with China.
If Europe was already scrambling to backstop Ukraine and bolster its own security before this past week, the Trump administration’s sharp turn away from Kyiv and toward Moscow has sent European leaders into a frenzy of rearmament.
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, sending shockwaves throughout the world. On Monday, Trump suddenly froze all U.S. military assistance for Ukraine and reportedly mooted offering Russia relief from painful economic sanctions—while also starting a trade war with two neighbors, including a NATO ally, as well as with China.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, unveiled a five-point plan called “ReArm Europe” on Tuesday that she said could unlock as much as 800 billion euros in coming years to rebuild Europe’s arsenals, defense industrial base, and overall security, threatened suddenly not just from the east but from the west as well.
“We are in an era of rearmament,” von der Leyen said, previewing the Thursday EU meeting that will attempt to hash out the immediate European response to both Ukraine’s plight and its own. “This is Europe’s moment, and we must live up to it,” she said.
In much the same way that Russian President Vladimir Putin became the unexpected catalyst for NATO expansion, driving longtime neutrals such as Sweden and Finland into the alliance due to his aggressive wars, Europe has found no better unifier than Trump. While Trump’s years of badgering European countries to increase defense spending paid only fitful dividends, his whiplash abdication of U.S. promises, good faith, and security blankets have had a remarkable impact.
Von der Leyen’s groundbreaking proposal would suspend EU fiscal rules to give member states the ability to ramp up defense spending, allow for the use of EU cohesion funds (normally spent on highways and subways) for defense, and goose joint EU financing to quickly enable cash-strapped European states to ramp up defense spending. Gone, in a blink, are both the north-south divides in Europe over frugality and an eight-decade sense of security that allowed Europe to skimp on defense spending while preaching soft power.
Von der Leyen’s proposals came two days after a big European defense summit in London, where Britain and France, among others, advocated bigger defense spending both to support Ukraine in the absence of American aid and to remedy decades of under-investment in the continent’s own security. It followed similar statements from Germany’s conservative leader and next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who said Germany and the continent must prepare for “independence” from the country that had guaranteed their security since the end of World War II.
The problem for Europe, and the explanation for continued efforts by leaders in France, Britain, Italy, and other states to mollify an increasingly erratic Trump, is that Europe will still need years to be able to build its defense capabilities to replace those potentially disappearing with a full U.S. withdrawal from Europe and NATO, which European leaders fear is a very real possibility before this summer. That is an especially acute concern for smaller countries such as the Baltic states, which are on the front line of any potential future Russian aggression and which today rely on U.S. troops and assets for security.
“For us, it’s like jumping off a ship in the middle of the ocean,” said Linas Kojala, the chief executive of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center (GSSC) in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Still, von der Leyen highlighted the stark change in European attitudes since Trump took office, and especially since he jettisoned an initial get-tough approach to Russia in order to bully Ukraine into making disastrous concessions to Moscow.
“The answer from European capitals has been as resounding as it is clear,” von der Leyen said. “Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending, both to respond to the short-term urgency to act and to support Ukraine, but also to address the long-term need to take on more responsibility for our own European security.”
For Ukraine, suddenly bereft of U.S. arms deliveries including much-needed gear such as air defense missiles, Europe’s plans for rearming offer some hope (especially for investors in European defense firms), though it is not clear how long it will take to ramp up production. Since the start of the war, Europe has over-promised and under-delivered on items such as artillery shells, leaving Ukraine at a battlefield disadvantage. While big European producers such as Rheinmetall are building new factories, including in Ukraine, that new production won’t be available this year.
Von der Leyen said that 150 billion euros in European loans would be earmarked for defense investment geared to Ukraine’s short-term needs, specifically for air defense, artillery systems, and drones, as well as mobility. She said the bloc, which has provided more financial and military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war than the United States has, “could massively step up support for Ukraine.”
Another open question, beyond stepped-up arms production and deliveries, is whether Europe will be able to field a ground force to act, if not as peacekeepers, then at least as a deterrent in the event a cease-fire is reached in the war. Britain and France have both broached the idea, envisioning a force of up to 30,000 troops to backstop Ukraine once the fighting stops. That idea, experts say, is feasible, provided Europe’s newfound willpower matches its rhetoric. (It also gave U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance his latest opportunity to anger allies in Europe.)
One final indication of the sea change in European attitudes is leaders’ growing advocacy of tapping the nearly 300 billion euros in frozen Russian state assets. Since just after the start of the war, those reserves, belonging to the Russian Central Bank, have been frozen, but Europeans had been extremely reluctant to seize them outright, fearing both reprisals from Moscow and an erosion of the eurozone’s financial appeal.
Yet even once-cautious countries such as Germany and Belgium are growing comfortable with the idea of using Russia’s frozen reserves to immediately inject tens of billions of euros into Ukraine assistance.
“Unlocking the assets is the only solution that would be quick and impactful,” Kojala said. The ultimate decision, he said, will “show whether Europe is really serious, or only paying lip service” to Ukraine.
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