As Mardi Gras celebrations prepare to take over New Orleans on Tuesday, the South faces a mounting weather threat, with forecasters warning of intense storms that could bring damaging winds, large hail and the potential for tornadoes.
A powerful weather system moving east from New Mexico into the Southern Plains will set the stage for these storms.
Meteorologists predict that strengthening winds and an influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf will create favorable conditions for severe weather. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, conditions in the region will be ripe for severe storms, especially in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.
“A combination of the moisture, the instability, the wind shear, those are the ingredients that will drive the severe weather threat,” said Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “The best overlap of those ingredients will be from the Southern Plains into the Southeast U.S. on Tuesday.”
While Tuesday is expected to be the most active day, storm conditions may begin to develop as early as Monday evening, with parts of Oklahoma and North Texas at risk of severe weather.
“But the bigger risk is on Tuesday, in a broad area from eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, all the way over to Alabama, with the greatest threat across portions of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi,” Mr. Chenard said.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk, a level three out of five, for severe weather across these areas, warning of damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and large hail.
“Strong damaging winds gusts is probably the biggest threat, but there’s also a threat of a few tornadoes, and some large hail as well,” Mr. Chenard said.
As the storm intensifies, New Orleans could face disruptions during its Mardi Gras festivities on Tuesday. The vibrant, centuries-old celebration is filled with parades, masquerade balls and street festivities. Beginning on Twelfth Night and culminating on Fat Tuesday before Lent, the festival draws hundreds of thousands of visitors each year.
Given the forecast of strong winds and the possibility of thunderstorms, the Weather Service’s New Orleans office urged residents and visitors to stay updated.
“We are still looking at the likelihood of severe weather on Mardi Gras,” the office said. “Strong winds are a definite threat.”
The timing of the storm will be crucial for the city, as forecasters predict the heaviest thunderstorms will strike on Tuesday afternoon and evening, which may affect the Krewe of Folsom Parade, which is set to start at 2 p.m.
“It’s a pretty quick-moving storm, so thunderstorms will probably move through fairly fast, but there could be some impacts there, as some of those storms could be severe,” Mr. Chenard said.
Dry conditions are adding another layer of concern as the storm passes through. Parts of New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, the Oklahoma Panhandle and western Texas face an extreme fire risk from Sunday through Tuesday.
“The first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry, windy conditions,” the Storm Prediction Center cautioned.
While the most significant severe weather is expected on Tuesday, the threat will not entirely dissipate afterward. On Wednesday, severe thunderstorms could affect parts of eastern Georgia and the Mid-Atlantic.
“Tuesday will be the main day for the most widespread and most significant severe weather,” Mr. Chenard said. While conditions are expected to ease by Wednesday, he cautioned that severe thunderstorms could still develop across the East Coast.
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